Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale
Abstract Premise Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local s...
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crwiley:10.1002/ajb2.16087 2024-06-02T08:14:25+00:00 Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale Zettlemoyer, Meredith A. Wilson, Jill E. DeMarche, Megan L. 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16087 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ajb2.16087 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ajb2.16087 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor American Journal of Botany volume 109, issue 12, page 1981-1990 ISSN 0002-9122 1537-2197 journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16087 2024-05-03T10:44:09Z Abstract Premise Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local studies in natural populations. These approaches differ widely in spatiotemporal scales, yet few studies explicitly consider effects of the geographic extent and resolution of climate data when comparing phenological sensitivities quantified from different data sets for a given species. Methods We compared sensitivity of flowering phenology to growing degree days of the alpine plant Silene acaulis using two data sets: herbarium specimens and a 6 yr observational study in four populations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We investigated differences in phenological sensitivity obtained using variable spatial scales and climate data sources. Results Herbarium specimens underestimated phenological sensitivity compared to observational data, even when herbarium samples were limited geographically or to nearby weather station data. However, when observational data were paired with broader‐scale climate data, as is typically used in herbarium data sets, estimates of phenological sensitivity were more similar. Conclusions This study highlights the potential for variation in data source, geographic scale, and accuracy of macroclimate data to produce very different estimates of phenological responses to climate change. Accurately predicting phenological shifts would benefit from comparisons between methods that estimate climate variables and phenological sensitivity over a variety of spatial scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Silene acaulis Wiley Online Library American Journal of Botany 109 12 1981 1990 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Premise Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local studies in natural populations. These approaches differ widely in spatiotemporal scales, yet few studies explicitly consider effects of the geographic extent and resolution of climate data when comparing phenological sensitivities quantified from different data sets for a given species. Methods We compared sensitivity of flowering phenology to growing degree days of the alpine plant Silene acaulis using two data sets: herbarium specimens and a 6 yr observational study in four populations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We investigated differences in phenological sensitivity obtained using variable spatial scales and climate data sources. Results Herbarium specimens underestimated phenological sensitivity compared to observational data, even when herbarium samples were limited geographically or to nearby weather station data. However, when observational data were paired with broader‐scale climate data, as is typically used in herbarium data sets, estimates of phenological sensitivity were more similar. Conclusions This study highlights the potential for variation in data source, geographic scale, and accuracy of macroclimate data to produce very different estimates of phenological responses to climate change. Accurately predicting phenological shifts would benefit from comparisons between methods that estimate climate variables and phenological sensitivity over a variety of spatial scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zettlemoyer, Meredith A. Wilson, Jill E. DeMarche, Megan L. |
spellingShingle |
Zettlemoyer, Meredith A. Wilson, Jill E. DeMarche, Megan L. Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale |
author_facet |
Zettlemoyer, Meredith A. Wilson, Jill E. DeMarche, Megan L. |
author_sort |
Zettlemoyer, Meredith A. |
title |
Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale |
title_short |
Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale |
title_full |
Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale |
title_fullStr |
Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale |
title_sort |
estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: effects of climate resolution and spatial scale |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16087 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ajb2.16087 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ajb2.16087 |
genre |
Silene acaulis |
genre_facet |
Silene acaulis |
op_source |
American Journal of Botany volume 109, issue 12, page 1981-1990 ISSN 0002-9122 1537-2197 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16087 |
container_title |
American Journal of Botany |
container_volume |
109 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1981 |
op_container_end_page |
1990 |
_version_ |
1800738246123061248 |