Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea
Abstract The conservation of seabirds is increasingly important for their role as indicator species of ocean ecosystems, which are predicted to experience increasing levels of exploitation this century. Safeguarding these ecosystems will require predictive, spatial studies of seabird foraging hotspo...
Published in: | Ecological Solutions and Evidence |
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crwiley:10.1002/2688-8319.12181 2024-03-31T07:47:55+00:00 Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten Office of Naval Research U.S. Navy 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Ecological Solutions and Evidence volume 3, issue 4 ISSN 2688-8319 2688-8319 Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Nature and Landscape Conservation Ecology Global and Planetary Change journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 2024-03-04T13:02:57Z Abstract The conservation of seabirds is increasingly important for their role as indicator species of ocean ecosystems, which are predicted to experience increasing levels of exploitation this century. Safeguarding these ecosystems will require predictive, spatial studies of seabird foraging hotspots. Current research on seabird foraging hotspots has established a significant relationship between probability of presence and several environmental variables, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST). However, inter‐annual, basin‐wide variation has the potential to invalidate these models, which depend on seasonal mesoscale variability. In this study, we present a novel solution to predict presence from spatially and temporally variable environmental predictors, while reducing the influence of large‐scale basin‐wide variation. We model the Maximum Entropy (MaxENT) Model‐derived relationship between Standardized Monthly SST (StdSST) and Habitat Suitability using Gaussian curve models, and then apply these models to independent StdSST data to produce heatmaps of predicted seabird presence. In this study, we demonstrate StdSST to be a functional environmental predictor of seabird presence, within a Gaussian curve model framework. We demonstrate accurate predictions of the model's training data and of independent seabird presence data to a high degree of accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve > 0.65) for four species of Auk: Common Guillemots ( Uria aalge ), Razorbills ( Alca torda ), Atlantic Puffins ( Fratercula arctica ) and Brunnich's Guillemots ( Uria lomvia ). We believe that the methodology we have developed and tested in this study can be used to guide ecosystem management practices by converting coupled‐climate model predictions into predictions of future presence based on Habitat Suitability for the species, allowing us to consider the possible effects of climate change and yearly variation of SST on foraging seabird hotspots in the Barents Sea. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alca torda Barents Sea fratercula Fratercula arctica Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria Wiley Online Library Barents Sea Ecological Solutions and Evidence 3 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Nature and Landscape Conservation Ecology Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Nature and Landscape Conservation Ecology Global and Planetary Change Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea |
topic_facet |
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Nature and Landscape Conservation Ecology Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Abstract The conservation of seabirds is increasingly important for their role as indicator species of ocean ecosystems, which are predicted to experience increasing levels of exploitation this century. Safeguarding these ecosystems will require predictive, spatial studies of seabird foraging hotspots. Current research on seabird foraging hotspots has established a significant relationship between probability of presence and several environmental variables, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST). However, inter‐annual, basin‐wide variation has the potential to invalidate these models, which depend on seasonal mesoscale variability. In this study, we present a novel solution to predict presence from spatially and temporally variable environmental predictors, while reducing the influence of large‐scale basin‐wide variation. We model the Maximum Entropy (MaxENT) Model‐derived relationship between Standardized Monthly SST (StdSST) and Habitat Suitability using Gaussian curve models, and then apply these models to independent StdSST data to produce heatmaps of predicted seabird presence. In this study, we demonstrate StdSST to be a functional environmental predictor of seabird presence, within a Gaussian curve model framework. We demonstrate accurate predictions of the model's training data and of independent seabird presence data to a high degree of accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve > 0.65) for four species of Auk: Common Guillemots ( Uria aalge ), Razorbills ( Alca torda ), Atlantic Puffins ( Fratercula arctica ) and Brunnich's Guillemots ( Uria lomvia ). We believe that the methodology we have developed and tested in this study can be used to guide ecosystem management practices by converting coupled‐climate model predictions into predictions of future presence based on Habitat Suitability for the species, allowing us to consider the possible effects of climate change and yearly variation of SST on foraging seabird hotspots in the Barents Sea. |
author2 |
Office of Naval Research U.S. Navy |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten |
author_facet |
Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten |
author_sort |
Hodges, Samuel |
title |
Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea |
title_short |
Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea |
title_full |
Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the foraging patterns of wintering Auks using a sea surface temperature model for the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
predicting the foraging patterns of wintering auks using a sea surface temperature model for the barents sea |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Alca torda Barents Sea fratercula Fratercula arctica Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
genre_facet |
Alca torda Barents Sea fratercula Fratercula arctica Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
op_source |
Ecological Solutions and Evidence volume 3, issue 4 ISSN 2688-8319 2688-8319 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12181 |
container_title |
Ecological Solutions and Evidence |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1795038310884704256 |