Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations
The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-cli...
Published in: | Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.328/471413/328-5746-1-pb.pdf |
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crunicaliforniap:10.1525/elementa.328 2024-09-15T17:44:51+00:00 Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations Boisier, Juan P. Alvarez-Garreton, Camila Cordero, Raúl R. Damiani, Alessandro Gallardo, Laura Garreaud, René D. Lambert, Fabrice Ramallo, Cinthya Rojas, Maisa Rondanelli, Roberto Chadwick, Oliver 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.328/471413/328-5746-1-pb.pdf en eng University of California Press http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene volume 6 ISSN 2325-1026 journal-article 2018 crunicaliforniap https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 2024-09-05T05:01:57Z The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic University of California Press Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 6 |
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Open Polar |
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University of California Press |
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crunicaliforniap |
language |
English |
description |
The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures. |
author2 |
Chadwick, Oliver |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boisier, Juan P. Alvarez-Garreton, Camila Cordero, Raúl R. Damiani, Alessandro Gallardo, Laura Garreaud, René D. Lambert, Fabrice Ramallo, Cinthya Rojas, Maisa Rondanelli, Roberto |
spellingShingle |
Boisier, Juan P. Alvarez-Garreton, Camila Cordero, Raúl R. Damiani, Alessandro Gallardo, Laura Garreaud, René D. Lambert, Fabrice Ramallo, Cinthya Rojas, Maisa Rondanelli, Roberto Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
author_facet |
Boisier, Juan P. Alvarez-Garreton, Camila Cordero, Raúl R. Damiani, Alessandro Gallardo, Laura Garreaud, René D. Lambert, Fabrice Ramallo, Cinthya Rojas, Maisa Rondanelli, Roberto |
author_sort |
Boisier, Juan P. |
title |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_short |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_full |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_sort |
anthropogenic drying in central-southern chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
publisher |
University of California Press |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.328/471413/328-5746-1-pb.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene volume 6 ISSN 2325-1026 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 |
container_title |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene |
container_volume |
6 |
_version_ |
1810492535051649024 |