Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic
Climate change and related expanding shipping activity are predicted to increase the risk of aquatic invasive species arriving in the Arctic. The goal of this study was to predict the distribution of an interconnected set of native and non-native primary producers and primary and secondary consumers...
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2024
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018 https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018/808002/elementa.2023.00018.pdf |
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crunicaliforniap:10.1525/elementa.2023.00018 2024-03-03T08:41:41+00:00 Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic Goldsmit, Jesica McKindsey, Christopher W. Schlegel, Robert W. Deslauriers, David Howland, Kimberly L. 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018 https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018/808002/elementa.2023.00018.pdf en eng University of California Press http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Elem Sci Anth volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2325-1026 Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography journal-article 2024 crunicaliforniap https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018 2024-02-03T23:24:37Z Climate change and related expanding shipping activity are predicted to increase the risk of aquatic invasive species arriving in the Arctic. The goal of this study was to predict the distribution of an interconnected set of native and non-native primary producers and primary and secondary consumers in this changing context. Groups of species were selected to represent a benthic coastal Arctic food web in Hudson Bay, including kelps and eelgrass as primary producers (Alaria esculenta, Agarum clathratum, Saccharina latissima, Laminaria solidungula, and Zostera marina), amphipods as primary consumers (Gammarus oceanicus and G. setosus), and fish as secondary consumers (sculpins Gymnacanthus tricuspis, Myoxocephalus scorpius, M. scorpioides, and M. quadricornis). Ensemble models were used to predict the distribution of these native and several analogue non-native species (species known to be invasive elsewhere that can be considered analogues to Hudson Bay species): Dumontia contorta, Undaria pinnatifida, Sargassum muticum, and Codium fragile (primary producers); Gammarus tigrinus (primary consumer); and Artediellus atlanticus and A. uncinatus (secondary consumers). Predicted habitat suitability of trophic groups and analogue non-native species were overlaid under current and future climate change scenarios to assess areas of change through time. The predicted direction of potential distribution shifts varies by species identity (species composition) but not trophic group. Overall trophic relationships and roles in the ecosystem are likely to be maintained over time because while some species are predicted to decrease their potential ranges (e.g., M. quadricornis), others in the same trophic groups are predicted to increase (e.g., M. scorpius). Overlap (or lack thereof) between native and analogue non-native species pairs are expected to vary through time enabling novel interactions (e.g., competition) in space and time. This approach will help to identify current and future high-risk areas for trophic level ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay University of California Press Arctic Hudson Hudson Bay Elem Sci Anth 12 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California Press |
op_collection_id |
crunicaliforniap |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography Goldsmit, Jesica McKindsey, Christopher W. Schlegel, Robert W. Deslauriers, David Howland, Kimberly L. Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography |
description |
Climate change and related expanding shipping activity are predicted to increase the risk of aquatic invasive species arriving in the Arctic. The goal of this study was to predict the distribution of an interconnected set of native and non-native primary producers and primary and secondary consumers in this changing context. Groups of species were selected to represent a benthic coastal Arctic food web in Hudson Bay, including kelps and eelgrass as primary producers (Alaria esculenta, Agarum clathratum, Saccharina latissima, Laminaria solidungula, and Zostera marina), amphipods as primary consumers (Gammarus oceanicus and G. setosus), and fish as secondary consumers (sculpins Gymnacanthus tricuspis, Myoxocephalus scorpius, M. scorpioides, and M. quadricornis). Ensemble models were used to predict the distribution of these native and several analogue non-native species (species known to be invasive elsewhere that can be considered analogues to Hudson Bay species): Dumontia contorta, Undaria pinnatifida, Sargassum muticum, and Codium fragile (primary producers); Gammarus tigrinus (primary consumer); and Artediellus atlanticus and A. uncinatus (secondary consumers). Predicted habitat suitability of trophic groups and analogue non-native species were overlaid under current and future climate change scenarios to assess areas of change through time. The predicted direction of potential distribution shifts varies by species identity (species composition) but not trophic group. Overall trophic relationships and roles in the ecosystem are likely to be maintained over time because while some species are predicted to decrease their potential ranges (e.g., M. quadricornis), others in the same trophic groups are predicted to increase (e.g., M. scorpius). Overlap (or lack thereof) between native and analogue non-native species pairs are expected to vary through time enabling novel interactions (e.g., competition) in space and time. This approach will help to identify current and future high-risk areas for trophic level ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goldsmit, Jesica McKindsey, Christopher W. Schlegel, Robert W. Deslauriers, David Howland, Kimberly L. |
author_facet |
Goldsmit, Jesica McKindsey, Christopher W. Schlegel, Robert W. Deslauriers, David Howland, Kimberly L. |
author_sort |
Goldsmit, Jesica |
title |
Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic |
title_short |
Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic |
title_full |
Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic |
title_sort |
predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded canadian arctic |
publisher |
University of California Press |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018 https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018/808002/elementa.2023.00018.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Hudson Hudson Bay |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Hudson Hudson Bay |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay |
op_source |
Elem Sci Anth volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2325-1026 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2023.00018 |
container_title |
Elem Sci Anth |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1792497327301197824 |