Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050
North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) are critically endangered, and recent changes in distribution patterns have been a major management challenge. Understanding the role that environmental conditions play in habitat suitability helps to determine the regions in need of monitoring or pr...
Published in: | Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene |
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University of California Press
2021
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058 http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058/460316/elementa.2020.20.00058.pdf |
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crunicaliforniap:10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058 2024-04-07T07:51:37+00:00 Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050 Ross, Camille H. Pendleton, Daniel E. Tupper, Benjamin Brickman, David Zani, Monica A. Mayo, Charles A. Record, Nicholas R. 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058 http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058/460316/elementa.2020.20.00058.pdf en eng University of California Press http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene volume 9, issue 1 ISSN 2325-1026 Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography journal-article 2021 crunicaliforniap https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058 2024-03-08T03:46:51Z North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) are critically endangered, and recent changes in distribution patterns have been a major management challenge. Understanding the role that environmental conditions play in habitat suitability helps to determine the regions in need of monitoring or protection for conservation of the species, particularly as climate change shifts suitable habitat. This study used three species distribution modeling algorithms, together with historical whale abundance data (1993–2009) and environmental covariate data, to build monthly ensemble models of past E. glacialis habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine. The model was projected onto the year 2050 for a range of climate scenarios. Specifically, the distribution of the species was modeled using generalized additive models, boosted regression trees, and artificial neural networks, with environmental covariates that included sea surface temperature, bottom water temperature, bathymetry, a modeled Calanus finmarchicus habitat index, and chlorophyll. Year-2050 projections used downscaled climate anomaly fields from Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The relative contribution of each covariate changed seasonally, with an increase in the importance of bottom temperature and C. finmarchicus in the summer, when model performance was highest. A negative correlation was observed between model performance and sea surface temperature contribution. The 2050 projections indicated decreased habitat suitability across the Gulf of Maine in the period from July through October, with the exception of narrow bands along the Scotian Shelf. The results suggest that regions outside of the current areas of conservation focus may become increasingly important habitats for E. glacialis under future climate scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Calanus finmarchicus Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale University of California Press Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 9 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of California Press |
op_collection_id |
crunicaliforniap |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography Ross, Camille H. Pendleton, Daniel E. Tupper, Benjamin Brickman, David Zani, Monica A. Mayo, Charles A. Record, Nicholas R. Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050 |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science Geology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Ecology Environmental Engineering Oceanography |
description |
North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) are critically endangered, and recent changes in distribution patterns have been a major management challenge. Understanding the role that environmental conditions play in habitat suitability helps to determine the regions in need of monitoring or protection for conservation of the species, particularly as climate change shifts suitable habitat. This study used three species distribution modeling algorithms, together with historical whale abundance data (1993–2009) and environmental covariate data, to build monthly ensemble models of past E. glacialis habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine. The model was projected onto the year 2050 for a range of climate scenarios. Specifically, the distribution of the species was modeled using generalized additive models, boosted regression trees, and artificial neural networks, with environmental covariates that included sea surface temperature, bottom water temperature, bathymetry, a modeled Calanus finmarchicus habitat index, and chlorophyll. Year-2050 projections used downscaled climate anomaly fields from Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The relative contribution of each covariate changed seasonally, with an increase in the importance of bottom temperature and C. finmarchicus in the summer, when model performance was highest. A negative correlation was observed between model performance and sea surface temperature contribution. The 2050 projections indicated decreased habitat suitability across the Gulf of Maine in the period from July through October, with the exception of narrow bands along the Scotian Shelf. The results suggest that regions outside of the current areas of conservation focus may become increasingly important habitats for E. glacialis under future climate scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ross, Camille H. Pendleton, Daniel E. Tupper, Benjamin Brickman, David Zani, Monica A. Mayo, Charles A. Record, Nicholas R. |
author_facet |
Ross, Camille H. Pendleton, Daniel E. Tupper, Benjamin Brickman, David Zani, Monica A. Mayo, Charles A. Record, Nicholas R. |
author_sort |
Ross, Camille H. |
title |
Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050 |
title_short |
Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050 |
title_full |
Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050 |
title_fullStr |
Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050 |
title_sort |
projecting regions of north atlantic right whale, eubalaena glacialis , habitat suitability in the gulf of maine for the year 2050 |
publisher |
University of California Press |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058 http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058/460316/elementa.2020.20.00058.pdf |
genre |
Calanus finmarchicus Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
genre_facet |
Calanus finmarchicus Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
op_source |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene volume 9, issue 1 ISSN 2325-1026 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058 |
container_title |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1795666618860175360 |