Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model
Abstract The Yedoma layer, a permafrost layer containing a massive amount of underground ice in the Arctic regions, is reported to be rapidly thawing. In this study, we develop the Permafrost Degradation and Greenhouse gasses Emission Model (PDGEM), which describes the thawing of the Arctic permafro...
Published in: | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
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2020
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8/fulltext.html |
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crspringernat:10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 2023-05-15T15:02:22+02:00 Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go Environment Research and Technology Development Fund the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Agence Nationale de la Recherche 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8/fulltext.html en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Progress in Earth and Planetary Science volume 7, issue 1 ISSN 2197-4284 General Earth and Planetary Sciences journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 2022-01-04T14:15:21Z Abstract The Yedoma layer, a permafrost layer containing a massive amount of underground ice in the Arctic regions, is reported to be rapidly thawing. In this study, we develop the Permafrost Degradation and Greenhouse gasses Emission Model (PDGEM), which describes the thawing of the Arctic permafrost including the Yedoma layer due to climate change and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The PDGEM includes the processes by which high-concentration GHGs (CO 2 and CH 4 ) contained in the pores of the Yedoma layer are released directly by dynamic degradation, as well as the processes by which GHGs are released by the decomposition of organic matter in the Yedoma layer and other permafrost. Our model simulations show that the total GHG emissions from permafrost degradation in the RCP8.5 scenario was estimated to be 31-63 PgC for CO 2 and 1261-2821 TgCH 4 for CH 4 (68 th percentile of the perturbed model simulations, corresponding to a global average surface air temperature change of 0.05–0.11 °C), and 14-28 PgC for CO 2 and 618-1341 TgCH 4 for CH 4 (0.03–0.07 °C) in the RCP2.6 scenario. GHG emissions resulting from the dynamic degradation of the Yedoma layer were estimated to be less than 1% of the total emissions from the permafrost in both scenarios, possibly because of the small area ratio of the Yedoma layer. An advantage of PDGEM is that geographical distributions of GHG emissions can be estimated by combining a state-of-the-art land surface model featuring detailed physical processes with a GHG release model using a simple scheme, enabling us to consider a broad range of uncertainty regarding model parameters. In regions with large GHG emissions due to permafrost thawing, it may be possible to help reduce GHG emissions by taking measures such as restraining land development. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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English |
topic |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
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General Earth and Planetary Sciences Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
topic_facet |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
description |
Abstract The Yedoma layer, a permafrost layer containing a massive amount of underground ice in the Arctic regions, is reported to be rapidly thawing. In this study, we develop the Permafrost Degradation and Greenhouse gasses Emission Model (PDGEM), which describes the thawing of the Arctic permafrost including the Yedoma layer due to climate change and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The PDGEM includes the processes by which high-concentration GHGs (CO 2 and CH 4 ) contained in the pores of the Yedoma layer are released directly by dynamic degradation, as well as the processes by which GHGs are released by the decomposition of organic matter in the Yedoma layer and other permafrost. Our model simulations show that the total GHG emissions from permafrost degradation in the RCP8.5 scenario was estimated to be 31-63 PgC for CO 2 and 1261-2821 TgCH 4 for CH 4 (68 th percentile of the perturbed model simulations, corresponding to a global average surface air temperature change of 0.05–0.11 °C), and 14-28 PgC for CO 2 and 618-1341 TgCH 4 for CH 4 (0.03–0.07 °C) in the RCP2.6 scenario. GHG emissions resulting from the dynamic degradation of the Yedoma layer were estimated to be less than 1% of the total emissions from the permafrost in both scenarios, possibly because of the small area ratio of the Yedoma layer. An advantage of PDGEM is that geographical distributions of GHG emissions can be estimated by combining a state-of-the-art land surface model featuring detailed physical processes with a GHG release model using a simple scheme, enabling us to consider a broad range of uncertainty regarding model parameters. In regions with large GHG emissions due to permafrost thawing, it may be possible to help reduce GHG emissions by taking measures such as restraining land development. |
author2 |
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Agence Nationale de la Recherche |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go |
author_facet |
Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go |
author_sort |
Yokohata, Tokuta |
title |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_short |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_full |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_fullStr |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_sort |
future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8/fulltext.html |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost |
op_source |
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science volume 7, issue 1 ISSN 2197-4284 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 |
container_title |
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766334329895518208 |