The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century
Abstract Of all the components of the global sea-level budget, the future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most uncertain in sea-level rise projections. Dynamic ice sheet model simulations show considerable overlap in the projected Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution under vario...
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2021
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00289-2.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00289-2 |
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crspringernat:10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2 2023-05-15T14:12:59+02:00 The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century Lowry, Daniel P. Krapp, Mario Golledge, Nicholas R. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00289-2.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00289-2 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Communications Earth & Environment volume 2, issue 1 ISSN 2662-4435 General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2 2022-01-04T08:09:29Z Abstract Of all the components of the global sea-level budget, the future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most uncertain in sea-level rise projections. Dynamic ice sheet model simulations show considerable overlap in the projected Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and the timescale at which scenario dependence will emerge is unclear. With historically constrained ice sheet simulations and a statistical emulator, we demonstrate that a high-emissions signature of the Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution will not unambiguously emerge from the wide potential range of low-emission sea-level projections for over 100 years due to current limitations in our understanding in ice flow and sliding. However, the results also indicate that the total global warming that occurs over the 21st century controls the resulting long-term Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level commitment, with multi-meter differences between the highest and lowest emissions scenarios in subsequent centuries. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Springer Nature (via Crossref) Antarctic The Antarctic Communications Earth & Environment 2 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science |
spellingShingle |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science Lowry, Daniel P. Krapp, Mario Golledge, Nicholas R. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century |
topic_facet |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science |
description |
Abstract Of all the components of the global sea-level budget, the future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most uncertain in sea-level rise projections. Dynamic ice sheet model simulations show considerable overlap in the projected Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and the timescale at which scenario dependence will emerge is unclear. With historically constrained ice sheet simulations and a statistical emulator, we demonstrate that a high-emissions signature of the Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution will not unambiguously emerge from the wide potential range of low-emission sea-level projections for over 100 years due to current limitations in our understanding in ice flow and sliding. However, the results also indicate that the total global warming that occurs over the 21st century controls the resulting long-term Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level commitment, with multi-meter differences between the highest and lowest emissions scenarios in subsequent centuries. |
author2 |
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lowry, Daniel P. Krapp, Mario Golledge, Nicholas R. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna |
author_facet |
Lowry, Daniel P. Krapp, Mario Golledge, Nicholas R. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna |
author_sort |
Lowry, Daniel P. |
title |
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century |
title_short |
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century |
title_full |
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century |
title_fullStr |
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century |
title_full_unstemmed |
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century |
title_sort |
influence of emissions scenarios on future antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00289-2.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00289-2 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Communications Earth & Environment volume 2, issue 1 ISSN 2662-4435 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766285376437092352 |