Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance
Abstract Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide s...
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crspringernat:10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 2023-05-15T14:30:27+02:00 Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00207-6.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00207-6 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Communications Earth & Environment volume 2, issue 1 ISSN 2662-4435 General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 2022-01-04T08:43:18Z Abstract Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Barents Sea Communications Earth & Environment 2 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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crspringernat |
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English |
topic |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science |
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General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
topic_facet |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science |
description |
Abstract Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna |
author_facet |
Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna |
author_sort |
Koul, Vimal |
title |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_short |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_full |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_fullStr |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_sort |
skilful prediction of cod stocks in the north and barents sea a decade in advance |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00207-6.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00207-6 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod |
op_source |
Communications Earth & Environment volume 2, issue 1 ISSN 2662-4435 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766304292134715392 |