Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO
Abstract Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmosph...
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6 2023-05-15T17:28:02+02:00 Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO Athanasiadis, Panos J. Yeager, Stephen Kwon, Young-Oh Bellucci, Alessio Smith, David W. Tibaldi, Stefano 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0120-6.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0120-6 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume 3, issue 1 ISSN 2397-3722 Atmospheric Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6 2022-01-04T16:23:35Z Abstract Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Springer Nature (via Crossref) npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 3 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change Athanasiadis, Panos J. Yeager, Stephen Kwon, Young-Oh Bellucci, Alessio Smith, David W. Tibaldi, Stefano Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Abstract Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Athanasiadis, Panos J. Yeager, Stephen Kwon, Young-Oh Bellucci, Alessio Smith, David W. Tibaldi, Stefano |
author_facet |
Athanasiadis, Panos J. Yeager, Stephen Kwon, Young-Oh Bellucci, Alessio Smith, David W. Tibaldi, Stefano |
author_sort |
Athanasiadis, Panos J. |
title |
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO |
title_short |
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO |
title_full |
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO |
title_fullStr |
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO |
title_sort |
decadal predictability of north atlantic blocking and the nao |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0120-6.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0120-6 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume 3, issue 1 ISSN 2397-3722 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766120477168762880 |