Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization

Abstract Skillful sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Ocean remains a big challenge due to paucity of sea-ice observations and insufficient representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. Using a coupled general circulation model, this study demonstrates skillful prediction of the summertime...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific Reports
Main Authors: Morioka, Yushi, Iovino, Doroteaciro, Cipollone, Andrea, Masina, Simona, Behera, Swadhin K.
Other Authors: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2021
Subjects:
Multidisciplinary
Antarctic
The Antarctic
Weddell Sea
Austral
Weddell
Antarctic Ocean
Antarc*
Sea ice
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91042-4
http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-91042-4.pdf
http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-91042-4
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Summary:Abstract Skillful sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Ocean remains a big challenge due to paucity of sea-ice observations and insufficient representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. Using a coupled general circulation model, this study demonstrates skillful prediction of the summertime sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Weddell Sea with wintertime SIC and sea-ice thickness (SIT) initializations. During low sea-ice years of the Weddell Sea, negative SIT anomalies initialized in June retain the memory throughout austral winter owing to horizontal advection of the SIT anomalies. The SIT anomalies continue to develop in austral spring owing to more incoming solar radiation and the associated warming of mixed layer, contributing to further sea-ice decrease during late austral summer-early autumn. Concomitantly, the model reasonably reproduces atmospheric circulation anomalies during austral spring in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas besides the Weddell Sea. These results provide evidence that the wintertime SIT initialization benefits skillful summertime sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Seas.

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