Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model
Abstract Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully c...
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 2023-05-15T14:10:45+02:00 Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-65297-2.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-65297-2 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Scientific Reports volume 10, issue 1 ISSN 2045-2322 Multidisciplinary journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 2022-01-04T09:40:31Z Abstract Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO 2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic Springer Nature (via Crossref) Antarctic The Antarctic Scientific Reports 10 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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English |
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Multidisciplinary |
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Multidisciplinary Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
topic_facet |
Multidisciplinary |
description |
Abstract Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO 2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco |
author_facet |
Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco |
author_sort |
Lembo, Valerio |
title |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_short |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_full |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_fullStr |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model |
title_sort |
beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-65297-2.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-65297-2 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
Scientific Reports volume 10, issue 1 ISSN 2045-2322 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 |
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Scientific Reports |
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10 |
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1 |
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1766282843807285248 |