Climate change could overturn bird migration: Transarctic flights and high-latitude residency in a sea ice free Arctic

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: Clairbaux, Manon, Fort, Jérôme, Mathewson, Paul, Porter, Warren, Strøm, Hallvard, Grémillet, David
• Other Authors: FRENCH POLAR INSTITUTE PAUL EMILE VICTOR- ADACLIM 388
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2019
• Subjects: Multidisciplinary; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Pacific; Alle alle; Climate change; Global warming; little auk; North Atlantic; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54228-5; http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54228-5.pdf; http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54228-5

Abstract Climate models predict that by 2050 the Arctic Ocean will be sea ice free each summer. Removing this barrier between the Atlantic and the Pacific will modify a wide range of ecological processes, including bird migration. Using published information, we identified 29 arctic-breeding seabird species, which currently migrate in the North Atlantic and could shift to a transarctic migration towards the North Pacific. We also identified 24 arctic-breeding seabird species which may shift from a migratory strategy to high-arctic year-round residency. To illustrate the biogeographical consequences of such drastic migratory shifts, we performed an in-depth study of little auks ( Alle alle ), the most numerous artic seabird. Coupling species distribution models and climatic models, we assessed the adequacy of future wintering and breeding areas for transarctic migrants and high-arctic year-round residents. Further, we used a mechanistic bioenergetics model (Niche Mapper), to compare the energetic costs of current little auk migration in the North Atlantic with potential transarctic and high-arctic residency strategies. Surprisingly, our results indicate that transarctic little auk migration, from the North Atlantic towards the North Pacific, may only be half as costly, energetically, than high-arctic residency or migration to the North Atlantic. Our study illustrates how global warming may radically modify the biogeography of migratory species, and provides a general methodological framework linking migratory energetics and spatial ecology.