Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation
Abstract Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and ‘business as usual’ future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past and future circulation variability and c...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54092-3.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54092-3 |
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 2023-05-15T14:10:16+02:00 Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation Stellema, Annette Sen Gupta, Alex Taschetto, Andréa S. University of New South Wales Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54092-3.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54092-3 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Scientific Reports volume 9, issue 1 ISSN 2045-2322 Multidisciplinary journal-article 2019 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 2022-01-04T13:08:18Z Abstract Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and ‘business as usual’ future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past and future circulation variability and change. Off the west coast of Australia, models consistently project a weakening of the Leeuwin Current and Undercurrent due to reduced onshore flow and downwelling. The reduced onshore flow is related to changes in the alongshore pressure gradient. While the alongshore pressure gradient change is consistent with the Indonesian Throughflow projected weakening, we found no inter-model relationship between these changes. In the south-western Indian Ocean, the models project a robust weakening of the North East and South East Madagascar Currents, Agulhas Current and transport through the Mozambique Channel. This reduced Indian Ocean western boundary flow is partly associated with a weaker Indonesian Throughflow and overturning circulation, where the latter is related to a decrease in the convergence of deep Southern Ocean waters into the Indian Ocean. In contrast to the weakening of other features, the westward flowing Agulhas Current extension south of Africa is projected to strengthen, which is consistent with an intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Springer Nature (via Crossref) Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean The Antarctic Scientific Reports 9 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
Multidisciplinary |
spellingShingle |
Multidisciplinary Stellema, Annette Sen Gupta, Alex Taschetto, Andréa S. Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
topic_facet |
Multidisciplinary |
description |
Abstract Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and ‘business as usual’ future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past and future circulation variability and change. Off the west coast of Australia, models consistently project a weakening of the Leeuwin Current and Undercurrent due to reduced onshore flow and downwelling. The reduced onshore flow is related to changes in the alongshore pressure gradient. While the alongshore pressure gradient change is consistent with the Indonesian Throughflow projected weakening, we found no inter-model relationship between these changes. In the south-western Indian Ocean, the models project a robust weakening of the North East and South East Madagascar Currents, Agulhas Current and transport through the Mozambique Channel. This reduced Indian Ocean western boundary flow is partly associated with a weaker Indonesian Throughflow and overturning circulation, where the latter is related to a decrease in the convergence of deep Southern Ocean waters into the Indian Ocean. In contrast to the weakening of other features, the westward flowing Agulhas Current extension south of Africa is projected to strengthen, which is consistent with an intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. |
author2 |
University of New South Wales Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stellema, Annette Sen Gupta, Alex Taschetto, Andréa S. |
author_facet |
Stellema, Annette Sen Gupta, Alex Taschetto, Andréa S. |
author_sort |
Stellema, Annette |
title |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_short |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_full |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_fullStr |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation |
title_sort |
projected slow down of south indian ocean circulation |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54092-3.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54092-3 |
geographic |
Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Indian Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Scientific Reports volume 9, issue 1 ISSN 2045-2322 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54092-3 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766282327481122816 |