Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Abstract Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dy...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25257-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25257-4 |
id |
crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 2023-05-15T14:55:18+02:00 Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning Andersson, Tom R. Hosking, J. Scott Pérez-Ortiz, María Paige, Brooks Elliott, Andrew Russell, Chris Law, Stephen Jones, Daniel C. Wilkinson, Jeremy Phillips, Tony Byrne, James Tietsche, Steffen Sarojini, Beena Balan Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Eduardo Aksenov, Yevgeny Downie, Rod Shuckburgh, Emily Alan Turing Institute 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25257-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25257-4 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 2022-01-04T16:07:14Z Abstract Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Nature Communications 12 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
spellingShingle |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Andersson, Tom R. Hosking, J. Scott Pérez-Ortiz, María Paige, Brooks Elliott, Andrew Russell, Chris Law, Stephen Jones, Daniel C. Wilkinson, Jeremy Phillips, Tony Byrne, James Tietsche, Steffen Sarojini, Beena Balan Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Eduardo Aksenov, Yevgeny Downie, Rod Shuckburgh, Emily Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss. |
author2 |
Alan Turing Institute |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andersson, Tom R. Hosking, J. Scott Pérez-Ortiz, María Paige, Brooks Elliott, Andrew Russell, Chris Law, Stephen Jones, Daniel C. Wilkinson, Jeremy Phillips, Tony Byrne, James Tietsche, Steffen Sarojini, Beena Balan Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Eduardo Aksenov, Yevgeny Downie, Rod Shuckburgh, Emily |
author_facet |
Andersson, Tom R. Hosking, J. Scott Pérez-Ortiz, María Paige, Brooks Elliott, Andrew Russell, Chris Law, Stephen Jones, Daniel C. Wilkinson, Jeremy Phillips, Tony Byrne, James Tietsche, Steffen Sarojini, Beena Balan Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Eduardo Aksenov, Yevgeny Downie, Rod Shuckburgh, Emily |
author_sort |
Andersson, Tom R. |
title |
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning |
title_short |
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning |
title_full |
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning |
title_sort |
seasonal arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25257-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25257-4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766327101957341184 |