Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Ribeiro, Sofia, Limoges, Audrey, Massé, Guillaume, Johansen, Kasper L., Colgan, William, Weckström, Kaarina, Jackson, Rebecca, Georgiadis, Eleanor, Mikkelsen, Naja, Kuijpers, Antoon, Olsen, Jesper, Olsen, Steffen M., Nissen, Martin, Andersen, Thorbjørn J., Strunk, Astrid, Wetterich, Sebastian, Syväranta, Jari, Henderson, Andrew C. G., Mackay, Helen, Taipale, Sami, Jeppesen, Erik, Larsen, Nicolaj K., Crosta, Xavier, Giraudeau, Jacques, Wengrat, Simone, Nuttall, Mark, Grønnow, Bjarne, Mosbech, Anders, Davidson, Thomas A.
• Other Authors: Villum Fonden, EC | EC Seventh Framework Programm | FP7 Environment (FP7-ENVIRONMENT - Specific Programme "Cooperation": Environment, Det Frie Forskningsråd, Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Carlsbergfondet
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2021
• Subjects: General Physics and Astronomy; General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Chemistry; Arctic; Greenland; Climate change; inuit; little auk; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24742-0; http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24742-0.pdf; http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24742-0

Abstract High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world’s northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400–4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200–1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.