Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
Abstract Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5 |
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 2023-05-15T17:33:15+02:00 Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas NSF | Directorate for Geosciences USACE Institute for Water Resources NSF | GEO | Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 2022-01-04T16:25:34Z Abstract Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851ā2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960sā1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Springer Nature (via Crossref) Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851ā2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960sā1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency. |
author2 |
NSF | Directorate for Geosciences USACE Institute for Water Resources NSF | GEO | Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas |
author_facet |
Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas |
author_sort |
Vecchi, Gabriel A. |
title |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_short |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_full |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_fullStr |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_sort |
changes in atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5 |
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North Atlantic |
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North Atlantic |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 |
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Nature Communications |
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12 |
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1 |
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1766131696795648000 |