Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Vecchi, Gabriel A., Landsea, Christopher, Zhang, Wei, Villarini, Gabriele, Knutson, Thomas
• Other Authors: NSF | Directorate for Geosciences, USACE Institute for Water Resources, NSF | GEO | Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2021
• Subjects: General Physics and Astronomy; General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Chemistry; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5; http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5.pdf; http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

Abstract Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.