Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
Abstract Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5 |
Summary: | Abstract Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851ā2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960sā1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency. |
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