Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa
Abstract Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting cli...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24134-4.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24134-4 |
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 2023-05-15T16:27:28+02:00 Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian M. Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24134-4.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24134-4 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 2022-01-14T15:42:48Z Abstract Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Springer Nature (via Crossref) Greenland Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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English |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian M. Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments. |
author2 |
Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian M. Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril |
author_facet |
Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian M. Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril |
author_sort |
Chemison, Alizée |
title |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_short |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_full |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_fullStr |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_sort |
impact of an accelerated melting of greenland on malaria distribution over africa |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24134-4.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24134-4 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Greenland Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Laplace |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 |
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Nature Communications |
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12 |
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1 |
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1766016651131617280 |