Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming
Abstract Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constrai...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22406-7 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22406-7.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22406-7 |
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-021-22406-7 2023-05-15T18:18:24+02:00 Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming Wang, Wei Chakraborty, T. C. Xiao, Wei Lee, Xuhui 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22406-7 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22406-7.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22406-7 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22406-7 2022-01-04T10:57:25Z Abstract Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constraint, we find that historical warming intensified precipitation at a rate of 0.68 ± 0.51% K −1 , which is slightly higher than the multi-model mean calculation for the historical climate (0.38 ± 1.18% K −1 ). The reduction in ocean surface albedo associated with melting of sea ice is a positive contributor to the precipitation temperature sensitivity. On the other hand, the observed increase in ocean heat storage weakens the historical precipitation. In this surface energy balance framework, the incident shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the ocean heat storage exert a dominant control on the precipitation temperature sensitivity, explaining 91% of the inter-model spread and the spread across climate scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Springer Nature (via Crossref) Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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English |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Wang, Wei Chakraborty, T. C. Xiao, Wei Lee, Xuhui Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constraint, we find that historical warming intensified precipitation at a rate of 0.68 ± 0.51% K −1 , which is slightly higher than the multi-model mean calculation for the historical climate (0.38 ± 1.18% K −1 ). The reduction in ocean surface albedo associated with melting of sea ice is a positive contributor to the precipitation temperature sensitivity. On the other hand, the observed increase in ocean heat storage weakens the historical precipitation. In this surface energy balance framework, the incident shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the ocean heat storage exert a dominant control on the precipitation temperature sensitivity, explaining 91% of the inter-model spread and the spread across climate scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Wei Chakraborty, T. C. Xiao, Wei Lee, Xuhui |
author_facet |
Wang, Wei Chakraborty, T. C. Xiao, Wei Lee, Xuhui |
author_sort |
Wang, Wei |
title |
Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming |
title_short |
Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming |
title_full |
Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming |
title_fullStr |
Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming |
title_sort |
ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22406-7 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22406-7.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22406-7 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22406-7 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
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12 |
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1 |
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1766194976619757568 |