Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change
Abstract A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty a...
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2021
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 2023-05-15T14:10:20+02:00 Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22259-0.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22259-0 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 2022-01-04T16:32:15Z Abstract A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ronne Ice Shelf Springer Nature (via Crossref) Antarctic Ronne Ice Shelf ENVELOPE(-61.000,-61.000,-78.500,-78.500) Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
spellingShingle |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. |
author_facet |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H. R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. |
author_sort |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. |
title |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_short |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_full |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_sort |
two-timescale response of a large antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22259-0.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22259-0 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-61.000,-61.000,-78.500,-78.500) |
geographic |
Antarctic Ronne Ice Shelf |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ronne Ice Shelf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ronne Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ronne Ice Shelf |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766282393388318720 |