Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill
Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) consistently underestimate the response of September Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) to warming. Modeled SIA losses are highly correlated to global mean temperature increases, making it challenging to gauge if improvements in modeled sea ice derive from improved sea-i...
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-021-22004-7 2023-05-15T15:04:48+02:00 Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill Horvat, Christopher National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22004-7 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22004-7.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22004-7 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22004-7 2022-01-04T16:13:17Z Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) consistently underestimate the response of September Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) to warming. Modeled SIA losses are highly correlated to global mean temperature increases, making it challenging to gauge if improvements in modeled sea ice derive from improved sea-ice models or from improvements in forcing driven by other GCM components. I use a set of five large GCM ensembles, and CMIP6 simulations, to quantify GCM internal variability and variability between GCMs from 1979–2014, showing modern GCMs do not plausibly estimate the response of SIA to warming in all months. I identify the marginal ice zone fraction (MIZF) as a metric that is less correlated to warming, has a response plausibly simulated from January–September (but not October–December), and has highly variable future projections across GCMs. These qualities make MIZF useful for evaluating the impact of sea-ice model changes on past, present, and projected sea-ice state. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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English |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Horvat, Christopher Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) consistently underestimate the response of September Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) to warming. Modeled SIA losses are highly correlated to global mean temperature increases, making it challenging to gauge if improvements in modeled sea ice derive from improved sea-ice models or from improvements in forcing driven by other GCM components. I use a set of five large GCM ensembles, and CMIP6 simulations, to quantify GCM internal variability and variability between GCMs from 1979–2014, showing modern GCMs do not plausibly estimate the response of SIA to warming in all months. I identify the marginal ice zone fraction (MIZF) as a metric that is less correlated to warming, has a response plausibly simulated from January–September (but not October–December), and has highly variable future projections across GCMs. These qualities make MIZF useful for evaluating the impact of sea-ice model changes on past, present, and projected sea-ice state. |
author2 |
National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Horvat, Christopher |
author_facet |
Horvat, Christopher |
author_sort |
Horvat, Christopher |
title |
Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill |
title_short |
Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill |
title_full |
Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill |
title_fullStr |
Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill |
title_full_unstemmed |
Marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill |
title_sort |
marginal ice zone fraction benchmarks sea ice and climate model skill |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22004-7 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22004-7.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22004-7 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 12, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22004-7 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
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12 |
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1 |
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1766336525974372352 |