Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
Abstract Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21 st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GC...
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 2023-05-15T15:07:58+02:00 Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew Fettweis, Xavier 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 2022-01-04T12:30:03Z Abstract Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21 st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21 st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Greenland Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew Fettweis, Xavier Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21 st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21 st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew Fettweis, Xavier |
author_facet |
Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew Fettweis, Xavier |
author_sort |
Hofer, Stefan |
title |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
greater greenland ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise in cmip6 |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766339388871016448 |