Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
Abstract Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration o...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3 |
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 2023-05-15T13:11:09+02:00 Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 2022-01-04T16:34:00Z Abstract Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO 2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice Springer Nature (via Crossref) Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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English |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO 2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico |
title |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_short |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_sort |
global warming due to loss of large ice masses and arctic summer sea ice |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766246139396358144 |