Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse
Abstract Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under c...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18300-3.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18300-3 |
id |
crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 2023-05-15T15:43:45+02:00 Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse Holsman, K. K. Haynie, A. C. Hollowed, A. B. Reum, J. C. P. Aydin, K. Hermann, A. J. Cheng, W. Faig, A. Ianelli, J. N. Kearney, K. A. Punt, A. E. 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18300-3.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18300-3 en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 2022-01-14T15:39:03Z Abstract Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Springer Nature (via Crossref) Bering Sea Pacific Nature Communications 11 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
spellingShingle |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Holsman, K. K. Haynie, A. C. Hollowed, A. B. Reum, J. C. P. Aydin, K. Hermann, A. J. Cheng, W. Faig, A. Ianelli, J. N. Kearney, K. A. Punt, A. E. Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Holsman, K. K. Haynie, A. C. Hollowed, A. B. Reum, J. C. P. Aydin, K. Hermann, A. J. Cheng, W. Faig, A. Ianelli, J. N. Kearney, K. A. Punt, A. E. |
author_facet |
Holsman, K. K. Haynie, A. C. Hollowed, A. B. Reum, J. C. P. Aydin, K. Hermann, A. J. Cheng, W. Faig, A. Ianelli, J. N. Kearney, K. A. Punt, A. E. |
author_sort |
Holsman, K. K. |
title |
Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse |
title_short |
Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse |
title_full |
Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse |
title_fullStr |
Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse |
title_sort |
ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18300-3.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18300-3 |
geographic |
Bering Sea Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea Pacific |
genre |
Bering Sea |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766377954706718720 |