Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System
Abstract The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, ini...
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crspringernat:10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x 2023-05-15T17:49:42+02:00 Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15722-x.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15722-x en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x 2021-11-02T13:04:59Z Abstract The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Springer Nature (via Crossref) Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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English |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
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General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
topic_facet |
General Physics and Astronomy General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology General Chemistry |
description |
Abstract The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith |
author_facet |
Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith |
author_sort |
Brady, Riley X. |
title |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_short |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_full |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_fullStr |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_sort |
skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the california current system |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15722-x.pdf http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15722-x |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Nature Communications volume 11, issue 1 ISSN 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766156123862204416 |