Urban heat island amplification estimates on global warming using an albedo model

• Published in: SN Applied Sciences
• Main Author: Feinberg, Alec
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2020
• Subjects: General Earth and Planetary Sciences; General Physics and Astronomy; General Engineering; General Environmental Science; General Materials Science; General Chemical Engineering; Arctic; albedo; Global warming; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-03889-3; http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42452-020-03889-3.pdf; http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42452-020-03889-3/fulltext.html

Abstract In this paper, we provide nominal and worst-case estimates of radiative forcing due to the UHI effect using a Weighted Amplification Albedo Solar Urbanization model. This calculation is done with the help of reported findings from UHI footprint and heat dome studies that simplify estimates for UHI amplification factors. Using this method, we quantify a global warming range due to the UHI effect, including its extent. Forcing estimates varied approximately between 0.07 and 0.87 W/m 2 representing 3% to 36% of global warming relative to the greenhouse gas forcing estimates between 1950 and 2019. Variations in our model are due to the urbanized area and associated UHI amplification estimate uncertainties. However, the model showed consistent values of about 0.16 W/m 2 /% solar effective amplified areas and 1.6 W/m 2 /%Δalbedo for the urbanized coverage forcing values. The basic model is additionally used to quantify feedback warming due to Arctic sea ice loss. Feedback estimates contribute to the impact of UHI forcing assessments. From our median estimates, it is concluded that UHIs contribute significantly to global warming trends. The model is versatile and also provides UHI albedo reverse forcing assessments. The results provide insight into the UHI area effects from a new perspective using a global view albedo model compared to prior ground-based measurement studies. It also illustrates the utility of using effective UHI amplification estimates when assessing their warming effect on a global scale.