A note on analysis of extreme minimum temperatures with the GAMLSS framework

• Published in: Acta Geophysica
• Main Author: Rydén, Jesper
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2019
• Subjects: Geophysics; Northern Sweden
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11600-019-00363-6; http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11600-019-00363-6.pdf; http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11600-019-00363-6/fulltext.html

Abstract Estimation of return levels, based on extreme value distributions, is of importance in the earth and environmental sciences. To incorporate non-stationarity in the modelling, the statistical framework of generalised additive models for location, scale and shape is an option, providing flexibility and with a wide range of distributions implemented. With a large set of selections possible, model choice is an issue. As a case study, we investigate annual minimum temperatures from measurements at a location in northern Sweden. For practical work, it turns out that care must be taken in examining the obtained distributions, not solely relying on information criteria. A simulation study illustrates the findings.