Variations of widespread extreme cold and warm days in winter over China and their possible causes

• Published in: Science China Earth Sciences
• Main Authors: Zuo, Zhiyan, Li, Mingqian, An, Ning, Xiao, Dong
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2021
• Subjects: General Earth and Planetary Sciences; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11430-021-9836-0; https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11430-021-9836-0.pdf; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-021-9836-0/fulltext.html

Abstract The two leading modes of winter surface air temperature (SAT) over China during 1961–2017 are a spatially consistent pattern and a north-south dipole pattern. Based on the two leading modes, the characteristics of the extreme cold and warm days in the two patterns, defined by the standard deviation larger than 1.28 or smaller than −1.28 in the time series of the two leading modes, are analyzed. With the increase of winter SAT during 1961–2017, the number of spatially consistent extreme cold days decreased and their occurrence was restricted to late December to early January, whereas the number of spatially consistent extreme warm days increased significantly in January and February. Global warming is associated with an increase in the spatially consistent extreme warm days and a decrease in spatially consistent extreme cold days, but has little relation to the sum of extreme cold and warm days of either the spatially consistent or north-south dipole pattern. The Siberian High (SH) is the main factor controlling the sum of spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The strong (weak) SH before (after) the 1990s corresponds to an increase (decrease) in the sum of the spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The occurrences of extreme south-cold-north-warm and extreme south-warm-north-cold days are related to the north-south difference of the SH. When the center of the SH is in mid-high latitudes, the extreme south-warm-north-cold (south-cold-north-warm) days occur more (less) often. During the winters of 1961–2017, the total number of extreme cold and warm days of the north-south dipole pattern changes negligibly. The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be the main factor affecting the sum of the extreme cold and warm days of the two types of SAT pattern in China.