Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science

• Published in: Climatic Change
• Main Author: Shepherd, Theodore G.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2021
• Subjects: Atmospheric Science; Global and Planetary Change; Arctic; Laplace; Climate change; Global warming
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6; https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6.pdf; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6/fulltext.html

Abstract The treatment of uncertainty in climate-change science is dominated by the far-reaching influence of the ‘frequentist’ tradition in statistics, which interprets uncertainty in terms of sampling statistics and emphasizes p -values and statistical significance. This is the normative standard...