Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence
Abstract Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-...
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2021
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w/fulltext.html |
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crspringernat:10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w 2023-05-15T15:06:49+02:00 Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias Seneviratne, Sonia I. Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga Swiss National Science Foundation Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Helmholtz-RSF 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w/fulltext.html en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Climatic Change volume 166, issue 1-2 ISSN 0165-0009 1573-1480 Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w 2022-01-04T08:04:30Z Abstract Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Siberia Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Verkhoyansk ENVELOPE(133.400,133.400,67.544,67.544) Climatic Change 166 1-2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias Seneviratne, Sonia I. Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Abstract Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible. |
author2 |
Swiss National Science Foundation Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Helmholtz-RSF |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias Seneviratne, Sonia I. Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga |
author_facet |
Ciavarella, Andrew Cotterill, Daniel Stott, Peter Kew, Sarah Philip, Sjoukje van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Skålevåg, Amalie Lorenz, Philip Robin, Yoann Otto, Friederike Hauser, Mathias Seneviratne, Sonia I. Lehner, Flavio Zolina, Olga |
author_sort |
Ciavarella, Andrew |
title |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_short |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_full |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_fullStr |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
title_sort |
prolonged siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w/fulltext.html |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(133.400,133.400,67.544,67.544) |
geographic |
Arctic Verkhoyansk |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Verkhoyansk |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Siberia |
op_source |
Climatic Change volume 166, issue 1-2 ISSN 0165-0009 1573-1480 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
166 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
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1766338379180408832 |