Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate
Abstract Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been paid to the i...
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2020
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1/fulltext.html |
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crspringernat:10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 2023-05-15T15:06:48+02:00 Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas F. Newman, Andrew J. National Science Foundation U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Center for Atmospheric Research 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1/fulltext.html en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Climate Dynamics volume 55, issue 11-12, page 3543-3564 ISSN 0930-7575 1432-0894 Atmospheric Science journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 2022-01-14T15:38:02Z Abstract Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of global warming on intense thunderstorms in high latitude continental regions, where they can produce flash flooding or ignite wildfires. We use a model with kilometer-scale grid spacing to simulate Alaska’s climate under present and end of the century high emission scenario conditions. The current climate simulation is able to capture the frequency and intensity of hourly precipitation compared to rain gauge data. We apply a precipitation tracking algorithm to identify intense, organized convective systems, which are projected to triple in frequency and extend to the northernmost regions of Alaska under future climate conditions. Peak rainfall rates in the core of the storms will intensify by 37% in line with atmospheric moisture increases. These results could have severe impacts on Alaska’s economy and ecology since floods are already the costliest natural disaster in central Alaska and an increasing number of thunderstorms could result in more wildfires ignitions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Alaska Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Climate Dynamics 55 11-12 3543 3564 |
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Open Polar |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
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crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science |
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Atmospheric Science Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas F. Newman, Andrew J. Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science |
description |
Abstract Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of global warming on intense thunderstorms in high latitude continental regions, where they can produce flash flooding or ignite wildfires. We use a model with kilometer-scale grid spacing to simulate Alaska’s climate under present and end of the century high emission scenario conditions. The current climate simulation is able to capture the frequency and intensity of hourly precipitation compared to rain gauge data. We apply a precipitation tracking algorithm to identify intense, organized convective systems, which are projected to triple in frequency and extend to the northernmost regions of Alaska under future climate conditions. Peak rainfall rates in the core of the storms will intensify by 37% in line with atmospheric moisture increases. These results could have severe impacts on Alaska’s economy and ecology since floods are already the costliest natural disaster in central Alaska and an increasing number of thunderstorms could result in more wildfires ignitions. |
author2 |
National Science Foundation U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Center for Atmospheric Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas F. Newman, Andrew J. |
author_facet |
Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas F. Newman, Andrew J. |
author_sort |
Poujol, Basile |
title |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_short |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_full |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_fullStr |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_sort |
kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of alaskan convective storms in future climate |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1/fulltext.html |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Alaska |
op_source |
Climate Dynamics volume 55, issue 11-12, page 3543-3564 ISSN 0930-7575 1432-0894 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
55 |
container_issue |
11-12 |
container_start_page |
3543 |
op_container_end_page |
3564 |
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1766338365906485248 |