Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project
Abstract This study investigates how teleconnections linking tropical rainfall anomalies and wintertime circulation in the northern extra-tropics are represented in historical simulations for the period 1950–2010 run by partners of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA project, following the HighResMIP protocol o...
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4/fulltext.html |
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crspringernat:10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4 2023-05-15T17:37:18+02:00 Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project Molteni, Franco Roberts, Christopher D. Senan, Retish Keeley, Sarah P. E. Bellucci, Alessio Corti, Susanna Fuentes Franco, Ramon Haarsma, Rein Levine, Xavier Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Malcolm J. Terray, Laurent Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4/fulltext.html en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Climate Dynamics volume 55, issue 7-8, page 1843-1873 ISSN 0930-7575 1432-0894 Atmospheric Science journal-article 2020 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4 2022-01-04T08:34:34Z Abstract This study investigates how teleconnections linking tropical rainfall anomalies and wintertime circulation in the northern extra-tropics are represented in historical simulations for the period 1950–2010 run by partners of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA project, following the HighResMIP protocol of CMIP6. The analysis focusses on teleconnections from the western/central Indian Ocean in mid-winter and from the NINO4 region in both the early and the late part of winter; this choice is justified by a substantial change in the relationship between ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the two parts of the season. Model results for both coupled integrations and runs with prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) are validated against data from the latest ECMWF 20th-century re-analysis, CERA20C. Simulations from six modelling groups are considered, comparing the impact of increasing atmospheric resolution in runs with prescribed SST, and of moving from uncoupled to coupled simulations in the high-resolution version of each model. Single runs were available for each model configurations at the time of writing, with one centre (ECMWF) also providing a 6-member ensemble. Results from this ensemble are compared with those of a 6-member multi-model ensemble (MME) formed by including one simulation from each model. Using only a single historical simulation from each model configuration, it is difficult to detect a consistent change in the fidelity of model-generated teleconnections when either atmospheric resolution is increased or ocean coupling is introduced. However, when simulations from six different models are pooled together in the MME, some improvements in teleconnection patterns can be seen when moving from uncoupled to coupled simulations. For the ECMWF ensemble, improvements in the coupled simulations are only apparent for the late-winter NINO4 teleconnection. While the Indian Ocean teleconnection and the late-winter NINO4 teleconnection appear equally robust in the re-analysis record, the latter is well simulated in the majority of both uncoupled and coupled runs, while the former is reproduced with (generally) much larger errors, and a high degree of variability between individual models and ensemble members. Most of the simulations with prescribed SST fail to produce a realistic estimate of multi-decadal changes between the first and the second part of the 60-year record. This is (at least partially) due to their inability to simulate an Indian Ocean rainfall change which, in observations, has a zonal gradient out of phase with SST changes. In coupled runs, at least one model run with both realistic teleconnections and a good simulation of the inter-decadal pattern of Indian Ocean rainfall also shows a realistic NAO signal in extratropical multi-decadal variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Springer Nature (via Crossref) Indian Pacific Climate Dynamics 55 7-8 1843 1873 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Molteni, Franco Roberts, Christopher D. Senan, Retish Keeley, Sarah P. E. Bellucci, Alessio Corti, Susanna Fuentes Franco, Ramon Haarsma, Rein Levine, Xavier Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Malcolm J. Terray, Laurent Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science |
description |
Abstract This study investigates how teleconnections linking tropical rainfall anomalies and wintertime circulation in the northern extra-tropics are represented in historical simulations for the period 1950–2010 run by partners of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA project, following the HighResMIP protocol of CMIP6. The analysis focusses on teleconnections from the western/central Indian Ocean in mid-winter and from the NINO4 region in both the early and the late part of winter; this choice is justified by a substantial change in the relationship between ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the two parts of the season. Model results for both coupled integrations and runs with prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) are validated against data from the latest ECMWF 20th-century re-analysis, CERA20C. Simulations from six modelling groups are considered, comparing the impact of increasing atmospheric resolution in runs with prescribed SST, and of moving from uncoupled to coupled simulations in the high-resolution version of each model. Single runs were available for each model configurations at the time of writing, with one centre (ECMWF) also providing a 6-member ensemble. Results from this ensemble are compared with those of a 6-member multi-model ensemble (MME) formed by including one simulation from each model. Using only a single historical simulation from each model configuration, it is difficult to detect a consistent change in the fidelity of model-generated teleconnections when either atmospheric resolution is increased or ocean coupling is introduced. However, when simulations from six different models are pooled together in the MME, some improvements in teleconnection patterns can be seen when moving from uncoupled to coupled simulations. For the ECMWF ensemble, improvements in the coupled simulations are only apparent for the late-winter NINO4 teleconnection. While the Indian Ocean teleconnection and the late-winter NINO4 teleconnection appear equally robust in the re-analysis record, the latter is well simulated in the majority of both uncoupled and coupled runs, while the former is reproduced with (generally) much larger errors, and a high degree of variability between individual models and ensemble members. Most of the simulations with prescribed SST fail to produce a realistic estimate of multi-decadal changes between the first and the second part of the 60-year record. This is (at least partially) due to their inability to simulate an Indian Ocean rainfall change which, in observations, has a zonal gradient out of phase with SST changes. In coupled runs, at least one model run with both realistic teleconnections and a good simulation of the inter-decadal pattern of Indian Ocean rainfall also shows a realistic NAO signal in extratropical multi-decadal variability. |
author2 |
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Molteni, Franco Roberts, Christopher D. Senan, Retish Keeley, Sarah P. E. Bellucci, Alessio Corti, Susanna Fuentes Franco, Ramon Haarsma, Rein Levine, Xavier Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Malcolm J. Terray, Laurent |
author_facet |
Molteni, Franco Roberts, Christopher D. Senan, Retish Keeley, Sarah P. E. Bellucci, Alessio Corti, Susanna Fuentes Franco, Ramon Haarsma, Rein Levine, Xavier Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Malcolm J. Terray, Laurent |
author_sort |
Molteni, Franco |
title |
Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project |
title_short |
Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project |
title_full |
Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project |
title_fullStr |
Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project |
title_full_unstemmed |
Boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall in HighResMIP historical simulations from the PRIMAVERA project |
title_sort |
boreal-winter teleconnections with tropical indo-pacific rainfall in highresmip historical simulations from the primavera project |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4/fulltext.html |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Climate Dynamics volume 55, issue 7-8, page 1843-1873 ISSN 0930-7575 1432-0894 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05358-4 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
55 |
container_issue |
7-8 |
container_start_page |
1843 |
op_container_end_page |
1873 |
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1766137157018189824 |