Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA)
Abstract Sea-level rise represents a severe hazard for populations living within low-elevation coastal zones and is already largely affecting coastal communities worldwide. As sea level continues to rise following unabated greenhouse gas emissions, the exposure of coastal communities to inundation a...
Published in: | Geo-Marine Letters |
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2021
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6/fulltext.html |
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crspringernat:10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6 2023-05-15T14:09:34+02:00 Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA) Boyden, Patrick Casella, Elisa Daly, Christopher Rovere, Alessio Universität Bremen 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6/fulltext.html en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Geo-Marine Letters volume 41, issue 4 ISSN 0276-0460 1432-1157 Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Oceanography journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6 2022-01-04T08:21:11Z Abstract Sea-level rise represents a severe hazard for populations living within low-elevation coastal zones and is already largely affecting coastal communities worldwide. As sea level continues to rise following unabated greenhouse gas emissions, the exposure of coastal communities to inundation and erosion will increase exponentially. These impacts will be further magnified under extreme storm conditions. In this paper, we focus on one of the most valuable coastal real estate markets globally (Palm Beach, FL). We use XBeach, an open-source hydro and morphodynamic model, to assess the impact of a major tropical cyclone (Hurricane Matthew, 2016) under three different sea-level scenarios. The first scenario (modern sea level) serves as a baseline against which other model runs are evaluated. The other two runs use different 2100 sea-level projections, localized to the study site: (i) IPCC RCP 8.5 (0.83 m by 2100) and (ii) same as (i), but including enhanced Antarctic ice loss (1.62 m by 2100). Our results show that the effective doubling of future sea level under heightened Antarctic ice loss amplifies flow velocity and wave height, leading to a 46% increase in eroded beach volume and the overtopping of coastal protection structures. This further exacerbates the vulnerability of coastal properties on the island, leading to significant increases in parcel inundation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Springer Nature (via Crossref) Antarctic Geo-Marine Letters 41 4 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Oceanography Boyden, Patrick Casella, Elisa Daly, Christopher Rovere, Alessio Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA) |
topic_facet |
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Oceanography |
description |
Abstract Sea-level rise represents a severe hazard for populations living within low-elevation coastal zones and is already largely affecting coastal communities worldwide. As sea level continues to rise following unabated greenhouse gas emissions, the exposure of coastal communities to inundation and erosion will increase exponentially. These impacts will be further magnified under extreme storm conditions. In this paper, we focus on one of the most valuable coastal real estate markets globally (Palm Beach, FL). We use XBeach, an open-source hydro and morphodynamic model, to assess the impact of a major tropical cyclone (Hurricane Matthew, 2016) under three different sea-level scenarios. The first scenario (modern sea level) serves as a baseline against which other model runs are evaluated. The other two runs use different 2100 sea-level projections, localized to the study site: (i) IPCC RCP 8.5 (0.83 m by 2100) and (ii) same as (i), but including enhanced Antarctic ice loss (1.62 m by 2100). Our results show that the effective doubling of future sea level under heightened Antarctic ice loss amplifies flow velocity and wave height, leading to a 46% increase in eroded beach volume and the overtopping of coastal protection structures. This further exacerbates the vulnerability of coastal properties on the island, leading to significant increases in parcel inundation. |
author2 |
Universität Bremen |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boyden, Patrick Casella, Elisa Daly, Christopher Rovere, Alessio |
author_facet |
Boyden, Patrick Casella, Elisa Daly, Christopher Rovere, Alessio |
author_sort |
Boyden, Patrick |
title |
Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA) |
title_short |
Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA) |
title_full |
Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA) |
title_fullStr |
Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hurricane Matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (Palm Beach, FL, USA) |
title_sort |
hurricane matthew in 2100: effects of extreme sea level rise scenarios on a highly valued coastal area (palm beach, fl, usa) |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6.pdf https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6/fulltext.html |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Geo-Marine Letters volume 41, issue 4 ISSN 0276-0460 1432-1157 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00367-021-00715-6 |
container_title |
Geo-Marine Letters |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766281588909277184 |