Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations
Abstract In order to assess the potential impact from oil spills and decide the optimal response actions, prediction of population level effects of key resources is crucial. These assessments are usually based on acute toxicity data combined with precautionary assumptions because chronic data are of...
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2021
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crspringernat:10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5 2023-05-15T15:09:07+02:00 Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations De Vries, Pepijn Tamis, Jacqueline Nahrgang, Jasmine Frantzen, Marianne Jak, Robbert Van Den Heuvel-Greve, Martine Klok, Chris Hemerik, Lia International Association of Oil and Gas Producers Fram Centre 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5 http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5.pdf http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5/fulltext.html en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Polar Biology volume 44, issue 3, page 575-586 ISSN 0722-4060 1432-2056 General Agricultural and Biological Sciences journal-article 2021 crspringernat https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5 2022-01-04T16:49:06Z Abstract In order to assess the potential impact from oil spills and decide the optimal response actions, prediction of population level effects of key resources is crucial. These assessments are usually based on acute toxicity data combined with precautionary assumptions because chronic data are often lacking. To better understand the consequences of applying precautionary approaches, two approaches for assessing population level effects on the Arctic keystone species polar cod ( Boreogadus saida ) were compared: a precautionary approach, where all exposed individuals die when exposed above a defined threshold concentration, and a refined (full-dose-response) approach. A matrix model was used to assess the population recovery duration of scenarios with various but constant exposure concentrations, durations and temperatures. The difference between the two approaches was largest for exposures with relatively low concentrations and short durations. Here, the recovery duration for the refined approach was less than eight times that found for the precautionary approach. Quantifying these differences helps to understand the consequences of precautionary assumptions applied to environmental risk assessment used in oil spill response decision making and it can feed into the discussion about the need for more chronic toxicity testing. An elasticity analysis of our model identified embryo and larval survival as crucial processes in the life cycle of polar cod and the impact assessment of oil spills on its population. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Boreogadus saida Polar Biology polar cod Springer Nature (via Crossref) Arctic Polar Biology 44 3 575 586 |
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Open Polar |
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Springer Nature (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crspringernat |
language |
English |
topic |
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences |
spellingShingle |
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences De Vries, Pepijn Tamis, Jacqueline Nahrgang, Jasmine Frantzen, Marianne Jak, Robbert Van Den Heuvel-Greve, Martine Klok, Chris Hemerik, Lia Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations |
topic_facet |
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences |
description |
Abstract In order to assess the potential impact from oil spills and decide the optimal response actions, prediction of population level effects of key resources is crucial. These assessments are usually based on acute toxicity data combined with precautionary assumptions because chronic data are often lacking. To better understand the consequences of applying precautionary approaches, two approaches for assessing population level effects on the Arctic keystone species polar cod ( Boreogadus saida ) were compared: a precautionary approach, where all exposed individuals die when exposed above a defined threshold concentration, and a refined (full-dose-response) approach. A matrix model was used to assess the population recovery duration of scenarios with various but constant exposure concentrations, durations and temperatures. The difference between the two approaches was largest for exposures with relatively low concentrations and short durations. Here, the recovery duration for the refined approach was less than eight times that found for the precautionary approach. Quantifying these differences helps to understand the consequences of precautionary assumptions applied to environmental risk assessment used in oil spill response decision making and it can feed into the discussion about the need for more chronic toxicity testing. An elasticity analysis of our model identified embryo and larval survival as crucial processes in the life cycle of polar cod and the impact assessment of oil spills on its population. |
author2 |
International Association of Oil and Gas Producers Fram Centre |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
De Vries, Pepijn Tamis, Jacqueline Nahrgang, Jasmine Frantzen, Marianne Jak, Robbert Van Den Heuvel-Greve, Martine Klok, Chris Hemerik, Lia |
author_facet |
De Vries, Pepijn Tamis, Jacqueline Nahrgang, Jasmine Frantzen, Marianne Jak, Robbert Van Den Heuvel-Greve, Martine Klok, Chris Hemerik, Lia |
author_sort |
De Vries, Pepijn |
title |
Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations |
title_short |
Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations |
title_full |
Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations |
title_sort |
quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (boreogadus saida) populations |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5 http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5.pdf http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5/fulltext.html |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Boreogadus saida Polar Biology polar cod |
genre_facet |
Arctic Boreogadus saida Polar Biology polar cod |
op_source |
Polar Biology volume 44, issue 3, page 575-586 ISSN 0722-4060 1432-2056 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02824-5 |
container_title |
Polar Biology |
container_volume |
44 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
575 |
op_container_end_page |
586 |
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1766340352349831168 |