Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change
Glaciers and ice caps in Norway are presently undergoing mass loss, areal reduction, and frontal retreat, mainly a result of increased summer ablation due to rising summer temperatures over Scandinavia, especially after 2000 CE. In this paper, the glacier mass-balance response of 10 Norwegian glacie...
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crsagepubl:10.1177/09596836231183069 2024-09-15T18:06:14+00:00 Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change Nesje, Atle 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/09596836231183069 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09596836231183069 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/09596836231183069 en eng SAGE Publications https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Holocene volume 33, issue 10, page 1257-1271 ISSN 0959-6836 1477-0911 journal-article 2023 crsagepubl https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836231183069 2024-07-15T04:31:22Z Glaciers and ice caps in Norway are presently undergoing mass loss, areal reduction, and frontal retreat, mainly a result of increased summer ablation due to rising summer temperatures over Scandinavia, especially after 2000 CE. In this paper, the glacier mass-balance response of 10 Norwegian glaciers with continuous mass balance observations (>10 years) to climate projections from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 have been estimated. Projected changes in mean summer temperature and mean winter precipitation from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100, applying the RCP8.5 emission scenario for five different regions in Norway; ‘Sogn og Fjordane’ and ‘Hordaland’, now Vestland County in western Norway, ‘Oppland’, now part of Innlandet County in eastern Norway, and Nordland County and Finnmark County, both in Northern Norway), range between +3.5°C and +5.0°C, and between +5% and +25%, respectively. These climate projections have been converted (by linear regression with overlapping observational mass-balance data) into specific surface glacier mass balance [winter balance ( B w ), summer balance ( B s ), and annual balance ( B a ) for 10 glaciers in Norway with mass-balance series [Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Austdalsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Rembesdalskåka (part of Hardangerjøkulen), Blomstølskardsbreen (part of Søre Folgefonna), Storbrean, Hellstugubrean, Gråsubrean, Engabreen (part of Vestre Svartisen, Langfjordjøkelen (data: http://glacier.nve.no/glacier/viewer/ci/no/ ) yielding a total, cumulative surface glacier mass loss from 2000 to 2100 CE in the range of -85.2 ± 4 to -197.3 ± 10 m water equivalents. The estimated changes in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs), in the range of 230 ± 10 to 630 ± 30 m, indicate that the mean ELA may reach the upper part of 7 of the 10 glaciers included in this study [Ålfotbreen, Austdalsbreen, Rembesdalskåka, Blomstølskardsbreen, Gråsubrean, Engabreen and Langfjordjøkelen] by the end of the 21st century. The projected glacier mass loss and ELA rise, and thus changes in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Finnmark glacier Nordland Nordland Northern Norway Svartisen Finnmark Nordland SAGE Publications The Holocene 33 10 1257 1271 |
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English |
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Glaciers and ice caps in Norway are presently undergoing mass loss, areal reduction, and frontal retreat, mainly a result of increased summer ablation due to rising summer temperatures over Scandinavia, especially after 2000 CE. In this paper, the glacier mass-balance response of 10 Norwegian glaciers with continuous mass balance observations (>10 years) to climate projections from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 have been estimated. Projected changes in mean summer temperature and mean winter precipitation from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100, applying the RCP8.5 emission scenario for five different regions in Norway; ‘Sogn og Fjordane’ and ‘Hordaland’, now Vestland County in western Norway, ‘Oppland’, now part of Innlandet County in eastern Norway, and Nordland County and Finnmark County, both in Northern Norway), range between +3.5°C and +5.0°C, and between +5% and +25%, respectively. These climate projections have been converted (by linear regression with overlapping observational mass-balance data) into specific surface glacier mass balance [winter balance ( B w ), summer balance ( B s ), and annual balance ( B a ) for 10 glaciers in Norway with mass-balance series [Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Austdalsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Rembesdalskåka (part of Hardangerjøkulen), Blomstølskardsbreen (part of Søre Folgefonna), Storbrean, Hellstugubrean, Gråsubrean, Engabreen (part of Vestre Svartisen, Langfjordjøkelen (data: http://glacier.nve.no/glacier/viewer/ci/no/ ) yielding a total, cumulative surface glacier mass loss from 2000 to 2100 CE in the range of -85.2 ± 4 to -197.3 ± 10 m water equivalents. The estimated changes in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs), in the range of 230 ± 10 to 630 ± 30 m, indicate that the mean ELA may reach the upper part of 7 of the 10 glaciers included in this study [Ålfotbreen, Austdalsbreen, Rembesdalskåka, Blomstølskardsbreen, Gråsubrean, Engabreen and Langfjordjøkelen] by the end of the 21st century. The projected glacier mass loss and ELA rise, and thus changes in ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nesje, Atle |
spellingShingle |
Nesje, Atle Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change |
author_facet |
Nesje, Atle |
author_sort |
Nesje, Atle |
title |
Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change |
title_short |
Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change |
title_full |
Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change |
title_fullStr |
Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change |
title_sort |
future state of norwegian glaciers: estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change |
publisher |
SAGE Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/09596836231183069 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09596836231183069 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/09596836231183069 |
genre |
Finnmark glacier Nordland Nordland Northern Norway Svartisen Finnmark Nordland |
genre_facet |
Finnmark glacier Nordland Nordland Northern Norway Svartisen Finnmark Nordland |
op_source |
The Holocene volume 33, issue 10, page 1257-1271 ISSN 0959-6836 1477-0911 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836231183069 |
container_title |
The Holocene |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1257 |
op_container_end_page |
1271 |
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1810443721166028800 |