East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations
To better understand the long-term changes of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation ( P jja ), quantitative reconstructions and model simulations are needed. Here, we develop continental-scale pollen-based transfer functions for P jja with weighted averaging–partial least squares (WA-PLS) regr...
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crsagepubl:10.1177/0959683615612564 2024-09-15T18:35:37+00:00 East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations Li, Jianyong Ilvonen, Liisa Xu, Qinghai Ni, Jian Jin, Liya Holmström, Lasse Zheng, Zhuo Lu, Houyuan Luo, Yunli Li, Yuecong Li, Chunhai Zhang, Xiaojian Seppä, Heikki 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683615612564 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683615612564 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/0959683615612564 en eng SAGE Publications http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license The Holocene volume 26, issue 4, page 592-602 ISSN 0959-6836 1477-0911 journal-article 2015 crsagepubl https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683615612564 2024-09-03T04:19:53Z To better understand the long-term changes of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation ( P jja ), quantitative reconstructions and model simulations are needed. Here, we develop continental-scale pollen-based transfer functions for P jja with weighted averaging–partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression and a Bayesian multinomial regression method. We apply these transfer functions to a set of fossil pollen data from monsoonal China for quantitatively reconstructing the P jja changes over the last 9500 years. We compare the reconstructions with P jja simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model (the Kiel Climate Model, KCM). The results of cross-validation tests for the transfer functions show that both the WA-PLS model ( r 2 = 0.83, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 112.11 mm) and the Bayesian model ( r 2 = 0.86, RMSEP = 107.67 mm) exhibit good predictive performance. We stack all P jja reconstructions from northern China to a summary curve. The stacked record reveals that P jja increased since 9500 cal. yr BP, attained its highest level during the Holocene summer monsoon maximum (HSMM) at ~7000–4000 cal. yr BP and declined to present. The KCM output and the reconstructions differ in the early-Holocene (~9500–7000 cal. yr BP) where the model suggests higher P jja than the reconstructions. Moreover, during the HSMM, the amplitude of the P jja changes (~20–60 mm above present) in simulations is lower than the reconstructed changes (~70–110 mm above present). The rising (declining) P jja patterns in reconstructions before (after) the HSMM are more pronounced and fluctuating than in simulations. Other palaeohydrological data such as lake-level reconstructions indicate substantial monsoon precipitation changes throughout the Holocene. Our results therefore show that the KCM underestimates the overall amplitude of the Holocene monsoon precipitation changes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice SAGE Publications The Holocene 26 4 592 602 |
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English |
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To better understand the long-term changes of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation ( P jja ), quantitative reconstructions and model simulations are needed. Here, we develop continental-scale pollen-based transfer functions for P jja with weighted averaging–partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression and a Bayesian multinomial regression method. We apply these transfer functions to a set of fossil pollen data from monsoonal China for quantitatively reconstructing the P jja changes over the last 9500 years. We compare the reconstructions with P jja simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model (the Kiel Climate Model, KCM). The results of cross-validation tests for the transfer functions show that both the WA-PLS model ( r 2 = 0.83, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 112.11 mm) and the Bayesian model ( r 2 = 0.86, RMSEP = 107.67 mm) exhibit good predictive performance. We stack all P jja reconstructions from northern China to a summary curve. The stacked record reveals that P jja increased since 9500 cal. yr BP, attained its highest level during the Holocene summer monsoon maximum (HSMM) at ~7000–4000 cal. yr BP and declined to present. The KCM output and the reconstructions differ in the early-Holocene (~9500–7000 cal. yr BP) where the model suggests higher P jja than the reconstructions. Moreover, during the HSMM, the amplitude of the P jja changes (~20–60 mm above present) in simulations is lower than the reconstructed changes (~70–110 mm above present). The rising (declining) P jja patterns in reconstructions before (after) the HSMM are more pronounced and fluctuating than in simulations. Other palaeohydrological data such as lake-level reconstructions indicate substantial monsoon precipitation changes throughout the Holocene. Our results therefore show that the KCM underestimates the overall amplitude of the Holocene monsoon precipitation changes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li, Jianyong Ilvonen, Liisa Xu, Qinghai Ni, Jian Jin, Liya Holmström, Lasse Zheng, Zhuo Lu, Houyuan Luo, Yunli Li, Yuecong Li, Chunhai Zhang, Xiaojian Seppä, Heikki |
spellingShingle |
Li, Jianyong Ilvonen, Liisa Xu, Qinghai Ni, Jian Jin, Liya Holmström, Lasse Zheng, Zhuo Lu, Houyuan Luo, Yunli Li, Yuecong Li, Chunhai Zhang, Xiaojian Seppä, Heikki East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations |
author_facet |
Li, Jianyong Ilvonen, Liisa Xu, Qinghai Ni, Jian Jin, Liya Holmström, Lasse Zheng, Zhuo Lu, Houyuan Luo, Yunli Li, Yuecong Li, Chunhai Zhang, Xiaojian Seppä, Heikki |
author_sort |
Li, Jianyong |
title |
East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations |
title_short |
East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations |
title_full |
East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations |
title_fullStr |
East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in China over the last 9500 years: A comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations |
title_sort |
east asian summer monsoon precipitation variations in china over the last 9500 years: a comparison of pollen-based reconstructions and model simulations |
publisher |
SAGE Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683615612564 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683615612564 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/0959683615612564 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
The Holocene volume 26, issue 4, page 592-602 ISSN 0959-6836 1477-0911 |
op_rights |
http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683615612564 |
container_title |
The Holocene |
container_volume |
26 |
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4 |
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592 |
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602 |
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