Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route
This paper presents a new framework for economic analysis of marine transportation, where uncertainty is given more attention than in the current research. A new quantitative method combined with the importance ranking method is used to access the uncertainty of evidence and for fusion of evidence f...
Published in: | Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/03611981221144286 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/03611981221144286 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/03611981221144286 |
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crsagepubl:10.1177/03611981221144286 2024-09-15T18:25:57+00:00 Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route Wang, Yangjun Zhang, Ren Liu, Kefeng Fu, Delong Zhu, Yingqian 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/03611981221144286 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/03611981221144286 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/03611981221144286 en eng SAGE Publications http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board volume 2677, issue 6, page 1-16 ISSN 0361-1981 2169-4052 journal-article 2023 crsagepubl https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221144286 2024-08-27T04:23:48Z This paper presents a new framework for economic analysis of marine transportation, where uncertainty is given more attention than in the current research. A new quantitative method combined with the importance ranking method is used to access the uncertainty of evidence and for fusion of evidence from multiple sources. The Bayesian network model is chosen as a tool to convey the uncertainty from one variable to another variable. Finally, with the help of information flow method, key factors are selected for sensitivity analysis. This framework is applied to a case study of maritime transportation from Shanghai to Rotterdam, aiming to investigate the economic potential of the Arctic routes and to explore the possibility of Arctic routes as a substitute for the traditional routes. A well-trained Bayesian network shows that the traditional routes will still dominate marine transportation in the near future. Sensitivity analysis reveals the asymmetric impact of key factors on the plan choice. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sea Route SAGE Publications Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2677 6 1 16 |
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SAGE Publications |
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English |
description |
This paper presents a new framework for economic analysis of marine transportation, where uncertainty is given more attention than in the current research. A new quantitative method combined with the importance ranking method is used to access the uncertainty of evidence and for fusion of evidence from multiple sources. The Bayesian network model is chosen as a tool to convey the uncertainty from one variable to another variable. Finally, with the help of information flow method, key factors are selected for sensitivity analysis. This framework is applied to a case study of maritime transportation from Shanghai to Rotterdam, aiming to investigate the economic potential of the Arctic routes and to explore the possibility of Arctic routes as a substitute for the traditional routes. A well-trained Bayesian network shows that the traditional routes will still dominate marine transportation in the near future. Sensitivity analysis reveals the asymmetric impact of key factors on the plan choice. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Yangjun Zhang, Ren Liu, Kefeng Fu, Delong Zhu, Yingqian |
spellingShingle |
Wang, Yangjun Zhang, Ren Liu, Kefeng Fu, Delong Zhu, Yingqian Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route |
author_facet |
Wang, Yangjun Zhang, Ren Liu, Kefeng Fu, Delong Zhu, Yingqian |
author_sort |
Wang, Yangjun |
title |
Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route |
title_short |
Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route |
title_full |
Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route |
title_fullStr |
Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route |
title_full_unstemmed |
Framework for Economic Potential Analysis of Marine Transportation: A Case Study for Route Choice Between the Suez Canal Route and the Northern Sea Route |
title_sort |
framework for economic potential analysis of marine transportation: a case study for route choice between the suez canal route and the northern sea route |
publisher |
SAGE Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/03611981221144286 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/03611981221144286 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/03611981221144286 |
genre |
Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Northern Sea Route |
op_source |
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board volume 2677, issue 6, page 1-16 ISSN 0361-1981 2169-4052 |
op_rights |
http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221144286 |
container_title |
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board |
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2677 |
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6 |
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1 |
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16 |
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1810466415433482240 |