The Outlook for Future Oil Prices

• Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation
• Main Author: Netschert, Bruce C.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: SAGE Publications 1983
• Subjects: Energy Engineering and Power Technology; Fuel Technology; Nuclear Energy and Engineering; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Arctic
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459878300200205; http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/014459878300200205

Forecasters of prices on the oil market have been proven wrong in predicting greatly increased prices over the last few years, despite clear signs that reduced consumption due to conservation measures, and an increasing resource base indicated the price would not rise dramatically. Present predictions range from a price collapse to the belief that, despite present trends, the price will rise as economic conditions improve. The author proposes that, after regaining the Saudi marker value of $34/barrel, possibly by 1986, due to steadily increased demand resulting from improved economic conditions, the price will stabilize in real terms, as reduced national oil dependency and improved energy efficiency continue to moderate demand. On the supply side, both in OPEC oil producing countries and elsewhere in the frontier areas such as the Arctic and China Sea, geological potential for undiscovered oil reserves is good.