Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition
Why do some states project military force to seek control of resources, while others do not? Conventional wisdom asserts that resource-scarce states should have the strongest interest in securing control over resources. Counter-intuitively, I argue that, under existing conditions, the opposite is tr...
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crsagepubl:10.1177/00220027231153577 2024-06-16T07:37:17+00:00 Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition Markowitz, Jonathan N. 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00220027231153577 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00220027231153577 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/00220027231153577 en eng SAGE Publications http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license Journal of Conflict Resolution volume 67, issue 10, page 1845-1872 ISSN 0022-0027 1552-8766 journal-article 2023 crsagepubl https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231153577 2024-05-19T12:59:44Z Why do some states project military force to seek control of resources, while others do not? Conventional wisdom asserts that resource-scarce states should have the strongest interest in securing control over resources. Counter-intuitively, I argue that, under existing conditions, the opposite is true. It is not resource-scarce states that will be more interested in militarily seeking additional resources, but rather states that are resource-abundant and dependent on income from extracting those resources. I test this proposition by leveraging a natural experiment that analyzes how states reacted to an exogenous shock that exposed resources in the Arctic in 2007. I employ original data that measures the change in states’ Arctic military presence before and after the shock. I find that dependence, not scarcity, explains how states responded to the shock. The findings enhance our understanding of the causes of resource competition and the geopolitical implications of climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change SAGE Publications Arctic Journal of Conflict Resolution 67 10 1845 1872 |
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Why do some states project military force to seek control of resources, while others do not? Conventional wisdom asserts that resource-scarce states should have the strongest interest in securing control over resources. Counter-intuitively, I argue that, under existing conditions, the opposite is true. It is not resource-scarce states that will be more interested in militarily seeking additional resources, but rather states that are resource-abundant and dependent on income from extracting those resources. I test this proposition by leveraging a natural experiment that analyzes how states reacted to an exogenous shock that exposed resources in the Arctic in 2007. I employ original data that measures the change in states’ Arctic military presence before and after the shock. I find that dependence, not scarcity, explains how states responded to the shock. The findings enhance our understanding of the causes of resource competition and the geopolitical implications of climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Markowitz, Jonathan N. |
spellingShingle |
Markowitz, Jonathan N. Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition |
author_facet |
Markowitz, Jonathan N. |
author_sort |
Markowitz, Jonathan N. |
title |
Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition |
title_short |
Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition |
title_full |
Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition |
title_sort |
arctic shock: utilizing climate change to test a theory of resource competition |
publisher |
SAGE Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00220027231153577 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00220027231153577 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full-xml/10.1177/00220027231153577 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Journal of Conflict Resolution volume 67, issue 10, page 1845-1872 ISSN 0022-0027 1552-8766 |
op_rights |
http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231153577 |
container_title |
Journal of Conflict Resolution |
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67 |
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10 |
container_start_page |
1845 |
op_container_end_page |
1872 |
_version_ |
1802003843610836992 |