A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs
Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization o...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 2024-06-02T08:02:21+00:00 A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs Normand, Signe Randin, Christophe Ohlemüller, Ralf Bay, Christian Høye, Toke T. Kjær, Erik D. Körner, Christian Lischke, Heike Maiorano, Luigi Paulsen, Jens Pearman, Peter B. Psomas, Achilleas Treier, Urs A. Zimmermann, Niklaus E. Svenning, Jens-Christian 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences volume 368, issue 1624, page 20120479 ISSN 0962-8436 1471-2970 journal-article 2013 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 2024-05-07T14:16:49Z Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland greenlandic Tundra The Royal Society Arctic Greenland Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368 1624 20120479 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
The Royal Society |
op_collection_id |
crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Normand, Signe Randin, Christophe Ohlemüller, Ralf Bay, Christian Høye, Toke T. Kjær, Erik D. Körner, Christian Lischke, Heike Maiorano, Luigi Paulsen, Jens Pearman, Peter B. Psomas, Achilleas Treier, Urs A. Zimmermann, Niklaus E. Svenning, Jens-Christian |
spellingShingle |
Normand, Signe Randin, Christophe Ohlemüller, Ralf Bay, Christian Høye, Toke T. Kjær, Erik D. Körner, Christian Lischke, Heike Maiorano, Luigi Paulsen, Jens Pearman, Peter B. Psomas, Achilleas Treier, Urs A. Zimmermann, Niklaus E. Svenning, Jens-Christian A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs |
author_facet |
Normand, Signe Randin, Christophe Ohlemüller, Ralf Bay, Christian Høye, Toke T. Kjær, Erik D. Körner, Christian Lischke, Heike Maiorano, Luigi Paulsen, Jens Pearman, Peter B. Psomas, Achilleas Treier, Urs A. Zimmermann, Niklaus E. Svenning, Jens-Christian |
author_sort |
Normand, Signe |
title |
A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs |
title_short |
A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs |
title_full |
A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs |
title_fullStr |
A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs |
title_full_unstemmed |
A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs |
title_sort |
greener greenland? climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland greenlandic Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland greenlandic Tundra |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences volume 368, issue 1624, page 20120479 ISSN 0962-8436 1471-2970 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0479 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
368 |
container_issue |
1624 |
container_start_page |
20120479 |
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1800746851360571392 |