Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects
Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 2024-06-02T08:00:23+00:00 Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects Haine, Thomas W. N. Siddiqui, Ali H. Jiang, Wenrui National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 381, issue 2262 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2023 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 2024-05-07T14:16:39Z Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that this extra freshwater will pass Greenland to enter the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) in the coming decades. Coupled climate models also project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the twenty-first century, associated with SPNA buoyancy increases. Yet, it remains unclear when the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal will be detected in the SPNA, or what form the signal will take. Therefore, this article reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on Arctic Ocean and SPNA salinity variations and their causes. This article focuses on the export processes in data-constrained ocean circulation model hindcasts. One challenge is to quantify and understand the relative importance of different competing processes. This article also discusses the prospects to detect the emergence of Arctic anthropogenic freshening and the likely impacts on the AMOC. For this issue, the challenge is to distinguish anthropogenic signals from natural variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges’. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Greenland North Atlantic Sea ice The Royal Society Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 381 2262 |
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English |
description |
Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that this extra freshwater will pass Greenland to enter the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) in the coming decades. Coupled climate models also project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the twenty-first century, associated with SPNA buoyancy increases. Yet, it remains unclear when the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal will be detected in the SPNA, or what form the signal will take. Therefore, this article reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on Arctic Ocean and SPNA salinity variations and their causes. This article focuses on the export processes in data-constrained ocean circulation model hindcasts. One challenge is to quantify and understand the relative importance of different competing processes. This article also discusses the prospects to detect the emergence of Arctic anthropogenic freshening and the likely impacts on the AMOC. For this issue, the challenge is to distinguish anthropogenic signals from natural variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges’. |
author2 |
National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Haine, Thomas W. N. Siddiqui, Ali H. Jiang, Wenrui |
spellingShingle |
Haine, Thomas W. N. Siddiqui, Ali H. Jiang, Wenrui Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects |
author_facet |
Haine, Thomas W. N. Siddiqui, Ali H. Jiang, Wenrui |
author_sort |
Haine, Thomas W. N. |
title |
Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects |
title_short |
Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects |
title_full |
Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects |
title_fullStr |
Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects |
title_sort |
arctic freshwater impact on the atlantic meridional overturning circulation: status and prospects |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Greenland North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Greenland North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 381, issue 2262 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0185 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
381 |
container_issue |
2262 |
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1800744387721822208 |