A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems
Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air–sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy bu...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 2024-06-02T08:01:22+00:00 A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems Hewitt, Helene T. Ridley, Jeff K. Keen, Ann B. West, Alex E. Peterson, K. Andrew Rae, Jamie G. L. Milton, Sean F. Bacon, Sheldon 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 373, issue 2045, page 20140161 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2015 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 2024-05-07T14:16:24Z Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air–sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy budgets in the Met Office climate models which point to the importance of early summer processes (such as clouds and meltponds) in determining both the seasonal cycle and the trend in ice decline. We give examples from Met Office modelling systems to illustrate how the seamless use of models for forecasting on time scales from short range to decadal might help to unlock the drivers of high latitude biases in climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Royal Society Arctic Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373 2045 20140161 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Royal Society |
op_collection_id |
crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air–sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy budgets in the Met Office climate models which point to the importance of early summer processes (such as clouds and meltponds) in determining both the seasonal cycle and the trend in ice decline. We give examples from Met Office modelling systems to illustrate how the seamless use of models for forecasting on time scales from short range to decadal might help to unlock the drivers of high latitude biases in climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hewitt, Helene T. Ridley, Jeff K. Keen, Ann B. West, Alex E. Peterson, K. Andrew Rae, Jamie G. L. Milton, Sean F. Bacon, Sheldon |
spellingShingle |
Hewitt, Helene T. Ridley, Jeff K. Keen, Ann B. West, Alex E. Peterson, K. Andrew Rae, Jamie G. L. Milton, Sean F. Bacon, Sheldon A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems |
author_facet |
Hewitt, Helene T. Ridley, Jeff K. Keen, Ann B. West, Alex E. Peterson, K. Andrew Rae, Jamie G. L. Milton, Sean F. Bacon, Sheldon |
author_sort |
Hewitt, Helene T. |
title |
A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems |
title_short |
A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems |
title_full |
A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems |
title_fullStr |
A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems |
title_sort |
seamless approach to understanding and predicting arctic sea ice in met office modelling systems |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 373, issue 2045, page 20140161 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0161 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
373 |
container_issue |
2045 |
container_start_page |
20140161 |
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1800745715942555648 |