Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting
September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related t...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 2024-09-30T14:21:54+00:00 Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 373, issue 2045, page 20140159 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2015 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 2024-09-17T04:34:48Z September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice The Royal Society Arctic Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373 2045 20140159 |
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Open Polar |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne |
spellingShingle |
Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
author_facet |
Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne |
author_sort |
Serreze, Mark C. |
title |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_short |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_full |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_sort |
arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 373, issue 2045, page 20140159 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
373 |
container_issue |
2045 |
container_start_page |
20140159 |
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1811645627294023680 |