A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction
Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to as...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
---|---|
Main Author: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
The Royal Society
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 |
id |
crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 2024-06-23T07:55:19+00:00 A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction Dunstone, Nick J. 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 372, issue 2025, page 20130340 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2014 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 2024-06-04T06:23:03Z Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow-down in surface global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic The Royal Society Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372 2025 20130340 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Royal Society |
op_collection_id |
crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow-down in surface global warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dunstone, Nick J. |
spellingShingle |
Dunstone, Nick J. A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction |
author_facet |
Dunstone, Nick J. |
author_sort |
Dunstone, Nick J. |
title |
A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction |
title_short |
A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction |
title_full |
A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction |
title_fullStr |
A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction |
title_sort |
perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 372, issue 2025, page 20130340 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0340 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
372 |
container_issue |
2025 |
container_start_page |
20130340 |
_version_ |
1802647855141224448 |