The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercompariso...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 2024-10-13T14:02:23+00:00 The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 Meijers, A. J. S. 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 372, issue 2019, page 20130296 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2014 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 2024-09-17T04:34:50Z The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean The Royal Society Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372 2019 20130296 |
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English |
description |
The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Meijers, A. J. S. |
spellingShingle |
Meijers, A. J. S. The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
author_facet |
Meijers, A. J. S. |
author_sort |
Meijers, A. J. S. |
title |
The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
title_short |
The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
title_full |
The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
title_fullStr |
The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 |
title_sort |
southern ocean in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 372, issue 2019, page 20130296 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0296 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
372 |
container_issue |
2019 |
container_start_page |
20130296 |
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1812816869348868096 |