Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations
Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have p...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 2024-06-23T07:55:11+00:00 Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations Black, Emily Brayshaw, David J. Rambeau, Claire M. C. 2010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 368, issue 1931, page 5173-5184 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2010 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 2024-06-10T04:15:11Z Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic The Royal Society Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 368 1931 5173 5184 |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Black, Emily Brayshaw, David J. Rambeau, Claire M. C. |
spellingShingle |
Black, Emily Brayshaw, David J. Rambeau, Claire M. C. Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations |
author_facet |
Black, Emily Brayshaw, David J. Rambeau, Claire M. C. |
author_sort |
Black, Emily |
title |
Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations |
title_short |
Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations |
title_full |
Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations |
title_fullStr |
Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations |
title_sort |
past, present and future precipitation in the middle east: insights from models and observations |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 368, issue 1931, page 5173-5184 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
368 |
container_issue |
1931 |
container_start_page |
5173 |
op_container_end_page |
5184 |
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1802647649326727168 |