The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future

The Mid-Pliocene ( ca 3 Myr ago) was a relatively warm period, with increased atmospheric CO 2 relative to pre-industrial. It has therefore been highlighted as a possible palaeo-analogue for the future. However, changed vegetation patterns, orography and smaller ice sheets also influenced the Mid-Pl...

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Published in:Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Main Authors: Lunt, Daniel J, Haywood, Alan M, Foster, Gavin L, Stone, Emma J
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: The Royal Society 2008
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218
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spelling crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 2024-06-02T08:00:09+00:00 The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future Lunt, Daniel J Haywood, Alan M Foster, Gavin L Stone, Emma J 2008 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 367, issue 1886, page 49-67 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2008 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 2024-05-07T14:16:16Z The Mid-Pliocene ( ca 3 Myr ago) was a relatively warm period, with increased atmospheric CO 2 relative to pre-industrial. It has therefore been highlighted as a possible palaeo-analogue for the future. However, changed vegetation patterns, orography and smaller ice sheets also influenced the Mid-Pliocene climate. Here, using a general circulation model and ice-sheet model, we determine the relative contribution of vegetation and soils, orography and ice, and CO 2 to the Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate and cryosphere. Compared with pre-industrial, we find that increased Mid-Pliocene CO 2 contributes 35 per cent, lower orography and ice-sheet feedbacks contribute 42 per cent, and vegetation changes contribute 23 per cent of Arctic temperature change. The simulated Mid-Pliocene Greenland ice sheet is substantially smaller than that of modern, mostly due to the higher CO 2 . However, our simulations of future climate change indicate that the same increase in CO 2 is not sufficient to melt the modern ice sheet substantially. We conclude that, although the Mid-Pliocene resembles the future in some respects, care must be taken when interpreting it as an exact analogue due to vegetation and ice-sheet feedbacks. These act to intensify Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate change, and act on a longer time scale than the century scale usually addressed in future climate prediction. Article in Journal/Newspaper arctic cryosphere Arctic Climate change Greenland Ice Sheet The Royal Society Arctic Greenland Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 367 1886 49 67
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collection The Royal Society
op_collection_id crroyalsociety
language English
description The Mid-Pliocene ( ca 3 Myr ago) was a relatively warm period, with increased atmospheric CO 2 relative to pre-industrial. It has therefore been highlighted as a possible palaeo-analogue for the future. However, changed vegetation patterns, orography and smaller ice sheets also influenced the Mid-Pliocene climate. Here, using a general circulation model and ice-sheet model, we determine the relative contribution of vegetation and soils, orography and ice, and CO 2 to the Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate and cryosphere. Compared with pre-industrial, we find that increased Mid-Pliocene CO 2 contributes 35 per cent, lower orography and ice-sheet feedbacks contribute 42 per cent, and vegetation changes contribute 23 per cent of Arctic temperature change. The simulated Mid-Pliocene Greenland ice sheet is substantially smaller than that of modern, mostly due to the higher CO 2 . However, our simulations of future climate change indicate that the same increase in CO 2 is not sufficient to melt the modern ice sheet substantially. We conclude that, although the Mid-Pliocene resembles the future in some respects, care must be taken when interpreting it as an exact analogue due to vegetation and ice-sheet feedbacks. These act to intensify Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate change, and act on a longer time scale than the century scale usually addressed in future climate prediction.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Lunt, Daniel J
Haywood, Alan M
Foster, Gavin L
Stone, Emma J
spellingShingle Lunt, Daniel J
Haywood, Alan M
Foster, Gavin L
Stone, Emma J
The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future
author_facet Lunt, Daniel J
Haywood, Alan M
Foster, Gavin L
Stone, Emma J
author_sort Lunt, Daniel J
title The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future
title_short The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future
title_full The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future
title_fullStr The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future
title_full_unstemmed The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future
title_sort arctic cryosphere in the mid-pliocene and the future
publisher The Royal Society
publishDate 2008
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218
geographic Arctic
Greenland
geographic_facet Arctic
Greenland
genre arctic cryosphere
Arctic
Climate change
Greenland
Ice Sheet
genre_facet arctic cryosphere
Arctic
Climate change
Greenland
Ice Sheet
op_source Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
volume 367, issue 1886, page 49-67
ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962
op_rights https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218
container_title Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
container_volume 367
container_issue 1886
container_start_page 49
op_container_end_page 67
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