The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future
The Mid-Pliocene ( ca 3 Myr ago) was a relatively warm period, with increased atmospheric CO 2 relative to pre-industrial. It has therefore been highlighted as a possible palaeo-analogue for the future. However, changed vegetation patterns, orography and smaller ice sheets also influenced the Mid-Pl...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 2024-06-02T08:00:09+00:00 The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future Lunt, Daniel J Haywood, Alan M Foster, Gavin L Stone, Emma J 2008 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 367, issue 1886, page 49-67 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2008 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 2024-05-07T14:16:16Z The Mid-Pliocene ( ca 3 Myr ago) was a relatively warm period, with increased atmospheric CO 2 relative to pre-industrial. It has therefore been highlighted as a possible palaeo-analogue for the future. However, changed vegetation patterns, orography and smaller ice sheets also influenced the Mid-Pliocene climate. Here, using a general circulation model and ice-sheet model, we determine the relative contribution of vegetation and soils, orography and ice, and CO 2 to the Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate and cryosphere. Compared with pre-industrial, we find that increased Mid-Pliocene CO 2 contributes 35 per cent, lower orography and ice-sheet feedbacks contribute 42 per cent, and vegetation changes contribute 23 per cent of Arctic temperature change. The simulated Mid-Pliocene Greenland ice sheet is substantially smaller than that of modern, mostly due to the higher CO 2 . However, our simulations of future climate change indicate that the same increase in CO 2 is not sufficient to melt the modern ice sheet substantially. We conclude that, although the Mid-Pliocene resembles the future in some respects, care must be taken when interpreting it as an exact analogue due to vegetation and ice-sheet feedbacks. These act to intensify Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate change, and act on a longer time scale than the century scale usually addressed in future climate prediction. Article in Journal/Newspaper arctic cryosphere Arctic Climate change Greenland Ice Sheet The Royal Society Arctic Greenland Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 367 1886 49 67 |
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Open Polar |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
The Mid-Pliocene ( ca 3 Myr ago) was a relatively warm period, with increased atmospheric CO 2 relative to pre-industrial. It has therefore been highlighted as a possible palaeo-analogue for the future. However, changed vegetation patterns, orography and smaller ice sheets also influenced the Mid-Pliocene climate. Here, using a general circulation model and ice-sheet model, we determine the relative contribution of vegetation and soils, orography and ice, and CO 2 to the Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate and cryosphere. Compared with pre-industrial, we find that increased Mid-Pliocene CO 2 contributes 35 per cent, lower orography and ice-sheet feedbacks contribute 42 per cent, and vegetation changes contribute 23 per cent of Arctic temperature change. The simulated Mid-Pliocene Greenland ice sheet is substantially smaller than that of modern, mostly due to the higher CO 2 . However, our simulations of future climate change indicate that the same increase in CO 2 is not sufficient to melt the modern ice sheet substantially. We conclude that, although the Mid-Pliocene resembles the future in some respects, care must be taken when interpreting it as an exact analogue due to vegetation and ice-sheet feedbacks. These act to intensify Mid-Pliocene Arctic climate change, and act on a longer time scale than the century scale usually addressed in future climate prediction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lunt, Daniel J Haywood, Alan M Foster, Gavin L Stone, Emma J |
spellingShingle |
Lunt, Daniel J Haywood, Alan M Foster, Gavin L Stone, Emma J The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future |
author_facet |
Lunt, Daniel J Haywood, Alan M Foster, Gavin L Stone, Emma J |
author_sort |
Lunt, Daniel J |
title |
The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future |
title_short |
The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future |
title_full |
The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future |
title_fullStr |
The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Arctic cryosphere in the Mid-Pliocene and the future |
title_sort |
arctic cryosphere in the mid-pliocene and the future |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
arctic cryosphere Arctic Climate change Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
arctic cryosphere Arctic Climate change Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 367, issue 1886, page 49-67 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0218 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
367 |
container_issue |
1886 |
container_start_page |
49 |
op_container_end_page |
67 |
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1800744159973212160 |