Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods
The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 2024-09-15T17:48:14+00:00 Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods Arthern, Robert J Hindmarsh, Richard C.A 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 364, issue 1844, page 1841-1865 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2006 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 2024-08-26T04:20:59Z The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the thickness change, snow accumulation, and ice-flow, to forecast the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Numerical simulations show that this approach can potentially be used to test whether changes observed in Antarctica are consistent with the natural forcing of a stable ice sheet by snowfall fluctuations. To make predictions under less restrictive assumptions, improvements in models of ice flow are needed. Some of the challenges that this prediction problem poses are highlighted, and potentially useful approaches drawn from numerical weather prediction are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet The Royal Society Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364 1844 1841 1865 |
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Open Polar |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the thickness change, snow accumulation, and ice-flow, to forecast the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Numerical simulations show that this approach can potentially be used to test whether changes observed in Antarctica are consistent with the natural forcing of a stable ice sheet by snowfall fluctuations. To make predictions under less restrictive assumptions, improvements in models of ice flow are needed. Some of the challenges that this prediction problem poses are highlighted, and potentially useful approaches drawn from numerical weather prediction are discussed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arthern, Robert J Hindmarsh, Richard C.A |
spellingShingle |
Arthern, Robert J Hindmarsh, Richard C.A Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
author_facet |
Arthern, Robert J Hindmarsh, Richard C.A |
author_sort |
Arthern, Robert J |
title |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_short |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_full |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_fullStr |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_sort |
determining the contribution of antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 364, issue 1844, page 1841-1865 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
364 |
container_issue |
1844 |
container_start_page |
1841 |
op_container_end_page |
1865 |
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1810289393820237824 |