Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change
Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 2024-06-23T07:47:28+00:00 Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change Gregory, J.M Huybrechts, P 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 364, issue 1844, page 1709-1732 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 journal-article 2006 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 2024-06-10T04:15:11Z Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding in Greenland and in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7 m. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet The Royal Society Greenland Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364 1844 1709 1732 |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
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English |
description |
Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding in Greenland and in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7 m. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gregory, J.M Huybrechts, P |
spellingShingle |
Gregory, J.M Huybrechts, P Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change |
author_facet |
Gregory, J.M Huybrechts, P |
author_sort |
Gregory, J.M |
title |
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change |
title_short |
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change |
title_full |
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change |
title_fullStr |
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change |
title_sort |
ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 364, issue 1844, page 1709-1732 ISSN 1364-503X 1471-2962 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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364 |
container_issue |
1844 |
container_start_page |
1709 |
op_container_end_page |
1732 |
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1802651583949832192 |