Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse
Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosyst...
Published in: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 2024-10-06T13:51:51+00:00 Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse Bland, Lucie M. Regan, Tracey J. Dinh, Minh Ngoc Ferrari, Renata Keith, David A. Lester, Rebecca Mouillot, David Murray, Nicholas J. Nguyen, Hoang Anh Nicholson, Emily Veski Australian Research Council 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences volume 284, issue 1863, page 20170660 ISSN 0962-8452 1471-2954 journal-article 2017 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 2024-09-09T06:01:30Z Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification The Royal Society Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 284 1863 20170660 |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
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English |
description |
Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. |
author2 |
Veski Australian Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bland, Lucie M. Regan, Tracey J. Dinh, Minh Ngoc Ferrari, Renata Keith, David A. Lester, Rebecca Mouillot, David Murray, Nicholas J. Nguyen, Hoang Anh Nicholson, Emily |
spellingShingle |
Bland, Lucie M. Regan, Tracey J. Dinh, Minh Ngoc Ferrari, Renata Keith, David A. Lester, Rebecca Mouillot, David Murray, Nicholas J. Nguyen, Hoang Anh Nicholson, Emily Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse |
author_facet |
Bland, Lucie M. Regan, Tracey J. Dinh, Minh Ngoc Ferrari, Renata Keith, David A. Lester, Rebecca Mouillot, David Murray, Nicholas J. Nguyen, Hoang Anh Nicholson, Emily |
author_sort |
Bland, Lucie M. |
title |
Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse |
title_short |
Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse |
title_full |
Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse |
title_fullStr |
Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse |
title_sort |
using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences volume 284, issue 1863, page 20170660 ISSN 0962-8452 1471-2954 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0660 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
284 |
container_issue |
1863 |
container_start_page |
20170660 |
_version_ |
1812180162278588416 |